Research

Background: We have been writing for several quarters about company-specific risk (CSR) and replicability – two concepts we use to assess how much of a stock’s returns can be explained by macro factors, and how many stocks trade highly correlated to each other over the last year. In addition to using these concepts to guide

It turns out the best market call this year was President Trump’s proclamation on April 8th to “Go out and buy stocks now.” We have been analyzing and creating quantitative signals for the better part of two decades, and forgive us, we never studied the “buy stocks because the President says so” factor. Our bad.

Here are the three most-viewed charts from our recent research. Let us know if you’d like to connect to discuss the insights – or to hear our latest market views. 1. There Are Now More Junk Semis Than High-Quality Semis In our April research, Is Now The Time To Buy Semiconductors?, we examine whether semis

After several investor meetings and a dinner with risk-minded equity investors this past week, it is our sense that there is ample confusion about what news is coming next, both in terms of corporate news and government policy. In the past, when we have felt this much tension from investors, who are either positioned optimistically

Background: One of the biggest macro investment controversies is the state of the US consumer. Jobs data remain relatively strong, but confidence is low. The stocks exposed to the Consumer have materially lagged. Hence, we investigate the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in today’s research. Stock ideas: We offer long / short Consumer Staples

Background: One of the biggest macro investment controversies is the state of the US consumer. Jobs data remain relatively strong, but confidence is low. The stocks exposed to the Consumer have materially lagged. Hence, we investigate the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in today’s research. We continue to recommend investors’ Underweight Consumer Discretionary: Consumer

We did several meetings this past week, and as is always the case, sentiment lags price momentum by two weeks. Three weeks ago, when we spent two days doing meetings in Canada, sentiment was decidedly negative. The market had declined well more than 10% year-to-date, and emotions were running high. This past week we spent

For this week’s Level Set we were thinking of writing about the somewhat better Bank and Technology earnings so far in Q1 than previously expected, the lag between the tariffs and the fundamentals, and our view that on the margin we like risk-taking a bit less today than we did a week ago. We don’t

We considered the revenue cycle, gross margins, operating expenses, inventory, capital spending, factor efficacy, China, and AI. We even looked at valuation, even though it is not a particularly good reason to buy one Semiconductor over another. Read our latest research for our conclusion.

We considered the revenue cycle, gross margins, operating expenses, inventory, capital spending, factor efficacy, China, and AI. We even looked at valuation, even though it is not a particularly good reason to buy one Semiconductor over another. Our conclusion is…. Download