We have put forth the idea that the Fed will be more hawkish than what is in the price, as low unemployment and high CPI will prevent an incrementally dovish stance. Following a recent round of investor meetings, we do not think we have an out-of-consensus view – at least among equity investors. The potential
To read Trivariate’s recent research note on NVDA click here.
To read Trivariate’s research note on which companies are good and bad at buying their own stock, click here.
We have mentioned several times in the last couple of months that a logical reason the market is higher YTD is that the probability and severity of a bear case in S&P500 earnings is not as high as it was at the beginning of the year. However, that is not a complete picture of the
We believe that one of the most important roles of the senior management team of a company is to be good stewards of capital. As such, we regularly analyze management decision making related to capital uses and the market’s reward or punishment for those actions. Today, we decided to evaluate the efficacy of corporate buybacks from two
Heading into 2023, the consensus view was that the stock market would go lower in the first half of the year, and higher in the second half. Our view published on the first Monday of January 2023 was to do the opposite: “…the bull case is a function of the fact that the biggest two
Trivariate’s recent research on AI: Level Set – Changing Our Views: Three New Types of Stocks and Perverse Valuation? (Link) Growth: A.I. Risk Factor, Fed, And FAANGM (Link) Level Set – What “BID” AI Means For Valuation, And Taking Risk (Link)
We continue to contemplate the possibility that all US equities might end up in one of three buckets based on the potential impact of AI – Beneficiaries, those that are Impregnable to AI, those that get Destroyed. We are using the acronym “BID” to reference these three buckets. Our suspicion is that companies that are
The world is clearly changing – with artificial intelligence, language processing, data ingestion and management, among other trends – rendering certain investment processes mute. The traditional business models of the optimal ways to do “bottom-up” fundamental stock picking are evolving rapidly. In today’s note, we put forth some frameworks to help CIOs identify fertile areas
