Research

During our investor conversations this past week, the subject of small-caps and the dramatic outperformance of the Magnificent 7 once again surfaced. We must admit we have mixed thoughts. On the one hand, we know that semiconductors are cyclical. Sure, the periodicity and amplitude of an AI-induced cycle can be different than previous cycles, but

Earlier this week, we outlined “Ten Investment Views for the Next Ten Years.” These ideas cut across asset classes and geographies and are, of course, all long-term in nature. Each topic could probably be addressed with dozens of charts, arguments, and counter arguments. We did our best to channel Mark Twain – and took the

Click here to read the corresponding research note.

Click here to read the corresponding research note.

Buybacks in aggregate have been a waste of capital:  There is ample evidence that management teams of most companies should be questioning the value of large buybacks. On average, they were not rewarded, yet we have seen 17 announcements this week, including from… 202402_Buybacks_are_Not_Particularly_EffectiveDownload

This note is intentionally written to be brief on each of the ten investment views. Each topic could probably be addressed with dozens of charts, arguments, and counter arguments. We did our best to channel Mark Twain – and took the time to write the short letter. We would be thrilled to discuss any of

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Technology Strategy.

Early in 2024 we wrote that many of the most idiosyncratic Technology stocks were “Old” Technology, and many of the most macro stocks were “New” Technology.  We also observed that both of these cohorts seemed to have generated alpha in the last year and did not have particularly high correlation to each other.  Low correlation

Click here to read Trivariate’s research note about the biggest opportunities in Consumer.

There is not much debate about the US consumer – it is slowing.   Whether it’s last week’s retail sales, rising 90-day credit card delinquencies, or a slowdown in auto demand, there’s ample evidence that the consumer is beginning to retrench.  Our proprietary gauge of consumer activity shows a marked slowdown.  However, we (and evidently COF