Research

Level Set – The US Election Playbook: Is Asking Even Relevant?

One of our least favorite subject matters to write about is politics. Firstly, it is likely too early to have a productive read on what will happen in the 2024 elections. Secondly, we think in many cases the conventional wisdom about what is politically good or bad for markets is overwhelmed by other factors, like

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How To Combine Growth And Value To Win

Over the last few months, we have published on strategies for both growth and value portfolio managers. Among growth stocks, we prefer high quality and low forecasted revenue growth stocks.  Among value, we prefer low beta and avoiding poor free cash flow conversion.  Today, we combine the best of our growth and value investing strategies

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Level Set – The Case for Gross Margin Expansion

In our year ahead outlook (2024 Year Ahead Outlook) we published earlier in January we posit that one of the reasons to be bullish on US equities is that the gross margins for the average company are likely to expand. Stocks typically experience asymmetrically higher valuation (on EV-to-Gross Profit or Price-to-Forward Earnings) when their gross

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Technology Strategy – Where Is The Alpha?

We look at the sub-industries within the technology sector to see where alpha potential is greatest.  We evaluate key metrics like company-specific risk, valuation dispersion, pairwise correlations, and the opportunity set, and conclude alpha potential is greatest in…

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Level Set – You Always Sound Smarter When You’re Bearish

As part of Trivariate’s 2024 Year Ahead Outlook published last week, we walked through our view that the risk-reward is skewed to the positive for US equities over the next 12 months. There are three main tenets to the bull thesis in our view. An accommodative Fed, gross margin expansion, and multiple years of growth.

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VIDEO – Technology Strategy

We launched a Technology Strategy product earlier this year. Please click above to watch the video or click here to read our note on Technology Strategy.

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Technology Strategy

Trivariate Research is launching a new product – TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY. Our key points are: Old tech is more idiosyncratic than new tech: DELL, MU, and IBM are far more idiosyncratic than CDNS, SNPS, SHOP, ADBE, and AAPL. Industry bets – Software over semis: We prefer Software over Semiconductors.  While these industries are highly correlated, high inventory,

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