We have mentioned several times in the last couple of months that a logical reason the market is higher YTD is that the probability and severity of a bear case in S&P500 earnings is not as high as it was at the beginning of the year. However, that is not a complete picture of the
We believe that one of the most important roles of the senior management team of a company is to be good stewards of capital. As such, we regularly analyze management decision making related to capital uses and the market’s reward or punishment for those actions. Today, we decided to evaluate the efficacy of corporate buybacks from two
Heading into 2023, the consensus view was that the stock market would go lower in the first half of the year, and higher in the second half. Our view published on the first Monday of January 2023 was to do the opposite: “…the bull case is a function of the fact that the biggest two
Trivariate’s recent research on AI: Level Set – Changing Our Views: Three New Types of Stocks and Perverse Valuation? (Link) Growth: A.I. Risk Factor, Fed, And FAANGM (Link) Level Set – What “BID” AI Means For Valuation, And Taking Risk (Link)
We continue to contemplate the possibility that all US equities might end up in one of three buckets based on the potential impact of AI – Beneficiaries, those that are Impregnable to AI, those that get Destroyed. We are using the acronym “BID” to reference these three buckets. Our suspicion is that companies that are
The world is clearly changing – with artificial intelligence, language processing, data ingestion and management, among other trends – rendering certain investment processes mute. The traditional business models of the optimal ways to do “bottom-up” fundamental stock picking are evolving rapidly. In today’s note, we put forth some frameworks to help CIOs identify fertile areas
To read Trivariate’s corresponding research note click here.
Given that a Fed pause is now seemingly the consensus view, we thought it would be appropriate to look back in time at previous Fed pauses and evaluate the performance of major asset classes and US equity sectors to look for patterns of behavior and create a Pause Playbook. To be clear, we aren’t certain
Over the last 35 years, the S&P500 was down 2.5% or more in a month in 17% of the months, or roughly 2x per year. Recently, however, the pace has been higher, with 2022 having seven such months – the most over this period. Every day, Wall Street “experts” reference or posit different signals to
