Fundamental   |   Quantitative   |   Macro

US-Equity Focused Research

At Trivariate Research we combine fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis to produce actionable research, practical investment advice and analytically rigorous risk management for our clients.

Latest Research

Level Set – Inconsistencies and Opportunities

Most of the news and macro commentary in the last week has been about the Fed. We have been writing since the Fall of 2021 that the perception about interest rates is statistically significantly associated with the price-to-forward earnings for the S&P500, and the relationship is even more pronounced for growth stocks. Our work shows…

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Level Set – Investors Are Uncertain, The Market Isn’t

The range of opinions about what could happen to the US equity market expressed by investors in our recent conversations have been as wide as any time we can remember. Some investors think the Fed has been exceedingly hawkish. Some think the Fed was too late to begin raising rates but now they think accommodation…

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Buybacks, M&A, and Their Consequences

At Trivariate we regularly study corporate capital uses and evaluate management teams’ decision-making. We showed previously that buybacks have not been efficacious at predicting subsequent stock performance.  Companies doing large share repurchases have not meaningfully outperformed companies that dilute their share count on a relative-to-industry and volatility-adjusted basis. Buybacks are much more effective when companies…

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Level Set – Volatility Leads to Underperformance, Price-to-IHLATB

A couple of weeks ago we wrote that “times were changing” due to a combination of rising rates and the likelihood of an incrementally hawkish Fed, excessively optimistic 2024 bottom-up earnings estimates, less compelling absolute (S&P500 multiple expanded from below 15x 2023 estimates to 18x) and relative (to short-term government bonds) valuation and increasing speculation…

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We help them do this by impacting their conviction on single stocks and improving their risk management by analyzing Fundamental, Quantitative, and Macro variables to create practical investment advice.

In a addition to our research, clients can request custom work to bolster their own investment decisions, augment letters, and marketing materials, or use our unique and proprietary quantitative engine to improve their risk management.


An outline of our subscription tiers

Tier One

  • Bespoke services including customized projects, outsourced risk management & portfolio diagnostics
  • One on one meetings with Trivariate Team
  • Access to all written research
  • Access to Trivariate Research model outputs
  • Access to investor, corporate & quantitative themed
    events (subject to availability)
  • Access to conference calls, webcasts, videos & podcasts
  • Access to research library

Tier Two

  • Access to all written research
  • Access to research library
  • Access to conference calls, webcasts, videos & podcasts
  • Limited access to the firm’s strategist, research analysts & sales team

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