Fundamental   |   Quantitative   |   Macro

US-Equity Focused Research

At Trivariate Research we combine fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis to produce actionable research, practical investment advice and analytically rigorous risk management for our clients.

Latest Research

Residual Volatility – Limited Utility, CSR Better

Some investors have been incorporating “res vol” or residual volatility into their investment disciplines over the last couple of years.  In fact, some “multi-strat” or “pod” portfolio managers have confided in us that “res vol” is a well-used “arrow in the quiver” for many high-turnover, market-neutral strategies.  Years ago, we had studied residual volatility and…

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Level Set – Dissecting the Rally

The huge market move in November has investors questioning whether there will be a sharp rotation in December or January. Some investors feel encouraged about the broadening of the rally and believe that is a proxy for better things to come. We are not convinced. Our explanation is a simple one. US Treasury Yields fell,…

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Monthly Digest – November 2023

The huge rally in November saw both growth and value participation. We wanted to highlight some of the major themes for investors who may have missed some of our work this month – including on growth and value investing. Important themes include: Growth Beta – The Honest Way to Evaluate Growth Investors Is Quality Even…

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Level Set – The Outlook for Revenue Growth

The revenue growth of the S&P500 is remarkably steady. From 2005 through the 2024 bottom-up forecasts, the 20-year revenue per share growth of the S&P500 (excluding Financials and REITs) has been 6.75% (see below). There have been only three down years during that period, and only one (2015) which was not the result of a…

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Industrials Digest

Three months ago, we launched an industrials-focused product, given the sector’s importance in the broader equity market. In addition to providing industry -level recommendations not just sector level – we have focused on themes relevant to industrials portfolio managers and analysts, as well as generalist PMs who want periodic and differentiated updates on the industrials…

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