Fundamental   |   Quantitative   |   Macro

US-Equity Focused Research

At Trivariate Research we combine fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis to produce actionable research, practical investment advice and analytically rigorous risk management for our clients.

Latest Research

Level Set – Good Is Good, Bad Is Bad, Except at Extremes

The stock market is having a bad month. The S&P500 is down 5% this month, owing primarily to changes in the perception of interest rates. As we show below, there is a strongly negative and statistically significant relationship between 24-month Fed Fund Futures (the perception about interest rates two years from now) and the price-to-forward

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Technology Strategy: NVDA Hedges

Given the huge run in NVDA and other AI-Semiconductor stocks, many investors have been asking about a potentially imminent rollover.  Even though NVDA’s May 22nd earnings announcement is more than a month away, diversifying exposure consistently comes up in our meetings.  We thought it was prudent to look for Technology stocks that trade with a relatively

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Level Set – The Bear Case and Protecting Your NVDA Overweight

In last week’s Level Set Level Set – The Bull Case Narrative Revisited we offered three reasons why we are bullish on US equities: easy financial conditions, gross margin expansion, and earnings growth. Today, we address what might cause the market to rollover and some defensive ideas for those over-exposed to AI-semiconductors: Tightening financial conditions

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Level Set – The Bull Case Narrative Revisited

We have been arguing for several months and still believe that there are three primary reasons the market is likely to continue to rally. An Accommodative Fed Gross Margin Expansion Earnings Growth for Several Years The first reason we are maintaining our bullish stance is our expectation that the Fed will eventually be accommodative, and

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