Fundamental   |   Quantitative   |   Macro

US-Equity Focused Research

At Trivariate Research we combine fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis to produce actionable research, practical investment advice and analytically rigorous risk management for our clients.

Latest Research

How Much More Will Multiples Contract?

With private companies (BX) finding value in public companies (EMR) earlier this month and a substantial correction in the market year-to-date, we thought it prudent to evaluate and put context around how much the price-to-forward earnings, FCF yield, and EV-to-forecasted sales ratios have contracted and look for relative opportunities within the equity market. The median…

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Level Set – The Volatility of Consumer Stocks Is Noteworthy

Earlier in the summer of 2022 there was an emerging narrative that the consumer might be in robust enough condition for the Fed to engineer a softish landing. Belief was at its highest following the July market rally and earnings results that were not as dreadful as some felt were possible after the Q2 market…

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Capital Use and Its Consequences

What does a CEO want said about them a decade from now when they step down?  We surmise that very high on that “legacy list” is that they were good stewards of capital, and that their decisions about capital use directly benefited shareholders and employees. Over the past several months we have researched the implications…

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Level Set – Annual Returns in a Day are Now The “New” Normal

In September, we wrote about how the market was experiencing incredibly high volatility of stock returns this cycle. Our long-term view is that US equities will return an average of 5-7% per year, a touch lower than the historical average of 7-9% per year. The algorithm for this return is organic earnings growth of 2-4%,…

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Best of Trivariate’s Recent Research

This document is meant for those who want to sit down for 60-90 minutes, once a month, and take full stock of major issues impacting US equities.  It includes a summary of all our idea generation, risk management, and macro data and services. For further information on our Quantitative Frameworks or to view our full…

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We help them do this by impacting their conviction on single stocks and improving their risk management by analyzing Fundamental, Quantitative, and Macro variables to create practical investment advice.

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