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US-Equity Focused Research

At Trivariate Research we combine fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis to produce actionable research, practical investment advice and analytically rigorous risk management for our clients.

Latest Research

12X Earnings Is Cheap, But 6X Is Not

Two weeks ago, we wrote a note about Costco (Ticker: COST), as it eclipsed 50x price-to-forward earnings (Link). We studied all companies that first eclipsed 50x as a proxy for becoming optically expensive and analyzed subsequent multiples and returns. The odds increasingly become stacked against their success. Today, we studied the opposite – stocks whose

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Is It Time to Look At Healthcare Stocks?

For Healthcare investors, the last few years have been particularly difficult to navigate. Less than 20% of Healthcare stocks have beaten the market over the last two years, the lowest percentage of winners in at least two decades. In fact, on a rolling two-year basis, the equally-weighted Healthcare sector has now experienced its worst performance

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Level Set – Six Buy and Six Sell Ideas Right Now

Trade Ideas Following the Red Sweep There has been an unbridled risk-on tape over the last few months. In today’s Level Set, we offer buy ideas based on where see recent optimism as likely to continue to be supported by potential catalysts in the first half of 2025, and sell ideas where we are dubious

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Level Set – 5 Thoughts on Recent Price Action

Optimistic Sentiment We hosted a dinner with several investors last week. The first discussion topic was the view we put forth in last week’s Level Set (see here), where we posited that the market could sell off when Trump is inaugurated on January 20th, 2025. We were curious about sentiment, and found the dinner crowd

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Level Set – Do You Sell the Inauguration?

Another Arrow in the Quiver of the Bull Case The prospect of a Republican Sweep never rose above 50% on the Polymarket (the world’s largest betting market) prior to Election Day, but the “Red Sweep” caused a huge risk-on trading environment. The certainty of the political environment caused many assets to move, including a plummeting

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Level Set – Valuation, Margins, and Size — Facts Not Feelings

Thinking About Small Cap Exposure? For months, investors have been asking us about small caps, aiming to understand the factors that might spark a lasting rally. Many cross-asset investors continue to make the case to overweight small caps, based on the contention that small caps appear attractively valued relative to history. Our general stance has

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OUR GOAL IS TO PROVIDE OUR CLIENTS WITH GREATER CLARITY AND CONVICTION

We help them do this by impacting their conviction on single stocks and improving their risk management by analyzing Fundamental, Quantitative, and Macro variables to create practical investment advice.

In a addition to our research, clients can request custom work to bolster their own investment decisions, augment letters, and marketing materials, or use our unique and proprietary quantitative engine to improve their risk management.

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