Research

Could Energy Stocks Be More Defensive This Cycle?

Oil prices have been range bound for nearly two years, with surprisingly little volatility given some clear demand and supply disappointments.  Energy stocks in the interim period have in some ways materially improved.   The percentage of stocks that are in Trivariate’s highest quality substance quartile, we call “High Quality,” is now higher than the percentage of

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VIDEO – Stock Splitting Works

Two of the best performing stocks year-to-date, NVDA and CMG, have recently announced 10:1 and 50:1 stock splits, respectively, catalyzing us to investigate the performance of stock splits historically.  While this is a well-traversed area of academic and Wall Street research, we wanted to investigate this the “Trivariate Way” to see if there were any

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Level Set – Sometimes Down Is Bad, and Sometimes Up Is Bad

A week ago, an investor mentioned to us that after NVDA’s earnings report on May 22nd, earnings season was essentially over. That turned out to be a huge exaggeration if you were long Software or short Retailers. For Software, the growing concern over the last year about AI disrupting that industry is now reaching a

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Trivariate’s Most Read Research – May 2024

Last month, we updated our outlook on the U.S. equity market to a more neutral stance – we feel like the next 10% move in the market (up or down) is probably equally balanced. While we recognize the potential for margin expansion to drive equity prices higher, we also acknowledge the increased risk of stagflation,

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Stock Splitting: Divide and Prosper

Two of the best performing stocks year-to-date, NVDA and CMG, have recently announced 10:1 and 50:1 stock splits, respectively, catalyzing us to investigate the performance of stock splits historically.  While this is a well-traversed area of academic and Wall Street research, we wanted to investigate this the “Trivariate Way” to see if there were any

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VIDEO – Don’t Waste Time On These 3 Things

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if

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Don’t Waste Time On These 3 Things

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if

Read More »