Research

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment…

In case you missed it, below is a digest of the most clicked on notes and videos with some key charts/tables that we’ve published month-to-date.  We’ve written about quality growth, price momentum, earnings, multiples, and the industrials and consumer sectors to name a few. In our pipeline, we are working on a spin-offs piece, computing…

For generalist PMs and CIOs, the health of the US consumer and what to do with the related stocks appear at a crossroads. For consumer PMs and analysts, fishing for perspective outside of their typical pond also seems important. Hence, the timing of today’s inaugural Trivariate Consumer Level Set could not be better. We will…

It became clear in August that the overwhelming consensus expectation was that the market would behave like a double-breaking putt. September would be a bad month for US equities, and then the market would rally into year end and finish the year at highs. So far, at least the first part of that is playing…

To read Trivariate’s recent note on momentum click here.

At the index level, the US equity market is having a strong year so far in 2023. The S&P500 is up 16% year-to-date and the Nasdaq is up 31%. Things should be sweet. But with the sharp pullback on Friday, the S&P500 performance is exactly 0.00% this quarter. All those trades, and not a dollar…

Price can disconnect from fundamentals for some time.  Some cyclicals in which investors believe in the long-term fundamentals (semiconductors, homebuilders, machinery) have performed relatively well this year despite obvious signs of a slowdown in some cases, while others lacking a long-term dream (airlines) have performed poorly.  In the end, saying you will focus on price…

Summary:   Industrials Likely Don’t Outperform in a Downturn Can Industrials work in a down tape? The sector has performed well since COVID, but–as we have written many times, including in our newly launched Industrials Level Set product–we think high earnings expectations, high inventory, and lofty valuations are potentially an impediment to further outperformance.  We agree…

Investing in equities typically involves a combination of changes to perceptions about growth and rates. Lately, growth has surprised to the upside. In fact, the bottom-up consensus earnings expectations for 2023 are now at the same level they were six months ago, bucking the typical trend of optimistic estimates that get downwardly revised (see below)….

To read Trivariate’s recent research note on the Industrials sector click here.