Research

Technology Strategy – Where Is The Alpha?

We look at the sub-industries within the technology sector to see where alpha potential is greatest.  We evaluate key metrics like company-specific risk, valuation dispersion, pairwise correlations, and the opportunity set, and conclude alpha potential is greatest in…

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Level Set – You Always Sound Smarter When You’re Bearish

As part of Trivariate’s 2024 Year Ahead Outlook published last week, we walked through our view that the risk-reward is skewed to the positive for US equities over the next 12 months. There are three main tenets to the bull thesis in our view. An accommodative Fed, gross margin expansion, and multiple years of growth.

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VIDEO – Technology Strategy

We launched a Technology Strategy product earlier this year. Please click above to watch the video or click here to read our note on Technology Strategy.

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Technology Strategy

Trivariate Research is launching a new product – TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY. Our key points are: Old tech is more idiosyncratic than new tech: DELL, MU, and IBM are far more idiosyncratic than CDNS, SNPS, SHOP, ADBE, and AAPL. Industry bets – Software over semis: We prefer Software over Semiconductors.  While these industries are highly correlated, high inventory,

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Level Set – Strategy for Rotating Rotations

The first week of 2024 seemed to set up for one of the most obvious rotations in recent memory. Most investors have not been surprised to see some sizable moves out of the frothier technology and consumer stocks into more sober value names—even if they did not position for it– to start the year. This

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What Really Happened In Q4

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment

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Accelerated Share Repurchases Are Good

There are several reasons management teams might consider an accelerated share repurchase, or ASR.  From a stock they feel is cheap despite a market rally, or underperformance vs. industry peers, to something potentially more self-serving, like meeting certain variable compensation bogeys based on per share metrics.  Whatever the motivation, we have noticed that ASRs often

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