Research

Over the last few weeks, we have analyzed the risk of several investor portfolios and ETFs. One metric we constantly use to assess risk is beta. At Trivariate we use the median of four beta horizons as an attempt to marry near-term conditions with the longer-term market sensitivity of each stock. Nonetheless, betas can change

Two weeks ago, we wrote a note about Costco (Ticker: COST), as it eclipsed 50x price-to-forward earnings (Link). We studied all companies that first eclipsed 50x as a proxy for becoming optically expensive and analyzed subsequent multiples and returns. The odds increasingly become stacked against their success. Today, we studied the opposite – stocks whose

For Healthcare investors, the last few years have been particularly difficult to navigate. Less than 20% of Healthcare stocks have beaten the market over the last two years, the lowest percentage of winners in at least two decades. In fact, on a rolling two-year basis, the equally-weighted Healthcare sector has now experienced its worst performance

Trade Ideas Following the Red Sweep There has been an unbridled risk-on tape over the last few months. In today’s Level Set, we offer buy ideas based on where see recent optimism as likely to continue to be supported by potential catalysts in the first half of 2025, and sell ideas where we are dubious

Optimistic Sentiment We hosted a dinner with several investors last week. The first discussion topic was the view we put forth in last week’s Level Set (see here), where we posited that the market could sell off when Trump is inaugurated on January 20th, 2025. We were curious about sentiment, and found the dinner crowd

There’s Nothing Worse than a Wrong Consensus Bear Nothing is worse than being a consensus bear when the market keeps rallying. Most people know that September is typically a volatile month, and the average September returns are the worst of any month of the year. We flagged it, and so did everyone else. With it

There’s Nothing Worse than a Wrong Consensus Bear Nothing is worse than being a consensus bear when the market keeps rallying. Most people know that September is typically a volatile month, and the average September returns are the worst of any month of the year. We flagged it, and so did everyone else. With it

Another Arrow in the Quiver of the Bull Case The prospect of a Republican Sweep never rose above 50% on the Polymarket (the world’s largest betting market) prior to Election Day, but the “Red Sweep” caused a huge risk-on trading environment. The certainty of the political environment caused many assets to move, including a plummeting

Thinking About Small Cap Exposure? For months, investors have been asking us about small caps, aiming to understand the factors that might spark a lasting rally. Many cross-asset investors continue to make the case to overweight small caps, based on the contention that small caps appear attractively valued relative to history. Our general stance has

Costco (Ticker: COST) bottomed after it posted disappointing earnings in May 2022, but since then the stock has more than doubled. At the same time, its price-to-forward earnings has expanded from 31x to 50x. While we can certainly appreciate many merits of Costco’s unique business model, it strikes us as a lofty increase in valuation