Research

Over the last 35 years, the S&P500 was down 2.5% or more in a month in 17% of the months, or roughly 2x per year.  Recently, however, the pace has been higher, with 2022 having seven such months – the most over this period.  Every day, Wall Street “experts” reference or posit different signals to…

To read Trivariate’s research note on Industrials: The Case For Caution click here.

We wrote our first AI-focused note a couple of weeks ago and received more incoming questions from that piece than on any other research we have published in a long time. Whereas most of the market’s discussion related to AI has previously been theoretical, Q1 earnings season marked a change to more tangible commentary about…

The GICS classification shows that the industrials sector has the greatest number of sub-industries (13) with more than 15 stocks in each, more than any other sector in the market. The stock returns of the biggest 20 companies in the industrials sector have been more disperse as of late than at any time in the…

As earnings season progresses, we thought we would highlight the key themes and trends we observed. Dispersion has been notable and in aggregate, stocks have performed well during earnings season to-date. The weak performance of the transports industry is noteworthy in our view, including UPS, trucking stocks, and the rails, where clearly a slowdown in…

To read Trivariate’s research note on Growth, AI, FED, and FAANGM click here.

We are not sure of the ultimate impact – probably no one is – but in the next ten to twenty years it is likely that somewhere between 20 and 50% of all human activity will be severely impacted or even totally commoditized by A.I.  This could have a massive implication on humankind and the…

Several times this week, investors have mentioned to us the surprisingly low VIX and if there are any investible implications. The consensus thought appears to be that the VIX is “wrong” and that buying equities is not as low risk as this popular gauge indicates. After all, there appears to be a rather pronounced negative…

To read Trivariate’s research note on Micro Caps click here.

We have noticed over the past year that the smaller the market cap. the cheaper the median stock is on price-to-forward earnings. There are several reasons micro-caps might lag, including:  more US-centric work forces where wage pressure is more acute; disproportionately higher costs of capital when financial conditions are tight; less negotiating power and scale…