The S&P500 and the Nasdaq are both up more than 11% year-to-date, partly fueled by a growing belief that an anticipated economic correction may not occur. Typically, when economic expectations improve, value stocks do well. This year, however, value stocks have lagged the market by more than 5% (see below), up just over 4% in
Chart 1: Consumer Staples Have the Highest Company-Specific Risk We have a proprietary way of computing company-specific risk (CSR). We look at the beta, size, style, substance, liquidity, and momentum of every stock, and what is left over we call CSR. What might surprise some Portfolio Managers is that Consumer Staples are the most idiosyncratic
The Industrials sector is structurally more growth, with 35% of the market capitalization of the sector belonging to Trivariate’s growth universe today – near all-time highs. In addition, and perhaps most importantly, the percentage of companies in the Industrials sector that have gross margins in the top 10th percentile vs. their own history is also
Trivariate’s database includes hundreds of pieces of information each day on each stock back for 25 years. We regularly look at and create custom dashboards for investors, and would encourage you to click on the attached spreadsheets and let us know what data you would like to see – and what sector you care about
Years ago, when we were working at Morgan Stanley, we wrote about how we had a growing feeling that any short-term bad news on the economy was going to be subsequently good for stocks, and any incrementally good news on the economy was likely to cause a market sell-off. We titled the work “Bad Is
The Healthcare sector has lagged year-to-date. Dispersion of returns has also been narrow, with 3-month forward return dispersion only lower in February of 2010 and April of 2018. Source: Trivariate Research Generalist investors are asking questions like: Will Pharmaceuticals be defensive in a market correction? Will the lower earnings estimate forecasts that have been reduced due
Over the last few weeks, there have been some mixed macro datapoints, driving bond yields lower. While the economy appears to be more likely to erode than recover, it is also possible that short-term cyclical inflation could exacerbate the issue. We analyzed 95 years of data and found that Consumer Staples typically do well during
Every portfolio manager tells their potential investors that they buy quality stocks. Growth portfolio managers sometimes have various marketing names for this group – from disruptors, to compounders — but in the end, they market to their partners that they own quality stocks. Quality is a big piece of the index: Trivariate has a proprietary
Over the last 25 years there have been twenty sell-offs in the growth stock universe of 10% or more. An incrementally hawkish Fed, growing fears of stagflation, a slowdown in the US consumer, a pause in I.T. spend from increasingly cautious CEOs, a disappointing recovery in China, crowded positioning, accelerating 2H of 2024 earnings estimates
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