Research

We have learned over the past several years that rarely, if ever, has valuation alone been a good reason to buy or sell a stock. We have written that when stocks get to 50x price-to-forward earnings, on average they begin to lag 9 months later (Do You Worry About Stocks At 50x Earnings?) and that

We advised investors to reduce their exposure to the Mag 7 three weeks ago (Level Set: Sell Some Mag 7), worried about their relatively high average beta, high and increasing capital intensity, elevated valuation, and the increased potential for disruption post the DeepSeek Monday over a month ago. The Mag 7 has lagged for two

Here are the three most-clicked charts from our February research. Interested in discussing these insights or hearing our latest views as we wrap up earnings season and look ahead into 2025? Let us know—we’d love to connect. 1. HEALTHCARE HAS THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF BUY RATINGS In our research titled Sell-Side Analyst Ratings Are Mostly

Background: We have learned over the past several years that rarely, if ever, has valuation alone been a good reason to buy or sell a stock. We have written that when stocks get to 50x price-to-forward earnings, on average they begin to lag 9 months later (Do You Worry About Stocks At 50x Earnings?) and

Register Now for our upcoming webinar to learn more about Optimal Beta and Portfolio Construction ~ Monday, March 17th at 11am ET. Over the past few months, we have written two research notes on portfolio beta. The first (The Higher The Beta The Lower The Alpha) examined the enormous historical alpha destruction from a higher

We Remain Cautious on the First Half of the Year We don’t want to say that earnings season is over, as after all, NVDA, the most important stock in the market, reports this coming week. However, we have enough data points year-to-date to comment on what we have learned, what’s been confirmed, and what’s new.

Register Now for our upcoming webinar to learn more about Optimal Beta and Portfolio Construction ~ Monday, March 17th at 11am ET. Over the past few months, we have written two research notes on portfolio beta. The first (The Higher The Beta The Lower The Alpha) examined the enormous historical alpha destruction from a higher

Analyst ratings on stocks are a regular feature in financial news coverage. Upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes can often create volatile one-day price movements, but the sustainability of that price action is frequently dubious. In today’s research, we analyzed whether there is any investable information to be gleaned from analyst ratings, changes in ratings

Over the last several years we have maintained the view, that it was prudent for long-only US equity managers to be at least market-weight the Mag 7. Our views have evolved to the point where we are changing our mind and believe lowering exposure is prudent.

The Lag 7 Last week we recommended that investors reduce their exposure to the Mag 7 (link here). A combination of the stocks being high beta, their aggregate high and increasing capital spending-to-sales, relatively expensive valuation, and above-normal potential for disruption were the catalysts for our more cautious view. In our dozens of investor calls