Research

Does The Fed Matter for Tech Stocks Now?

We spent the previous 25 years focused largely on US equities, and were aware that our colleagues often had pretty rapidly changing perceptions about interest rates.  Subsequent to the all-time low interest rate in the history of the United States, post-COVID, dynamics changed.  What ensued was a massive negative correlation between the perception about interest rates

Read More »

Banks Are Replicable

We think any time an investor buys a stock, they should know whether the stock trades like many other stocks, or relatively few. This concept, we refer to as replicability. We define the replicability of a stock as the number of other stocks that have a correlation higher than 0.7 with it over the last

Read More »

Level Set – What Should Value Portfolio Managers Do in a Flat Market?

The S&P500 and the Nasdaq are both up more than 11% year-to-date, partly fueled by a growing belief that an anticipated economic correction may not occur. Typically, when economic expectations improve, value stocks do well. This year, however, value stocks have lagged the market by more than 5% (see below), up just over 4% in

Read More »

Five Charts Portfolio Managers Like the Most

Chart 1: Consumer Staples Have the Highest Company-Specific Risk We have a proprietary way of computing company-specific risk (CSR). We look at the beta, size, style, substance, liquidity, and momentum of every stock, and what is left over we call CSR. What might surprise some Portfolio Managers is that Consumer Staples are the most idiosyncratic

Read More »

Navigating The New Terrain: Insights Into Today’s Industrials Sector

The Industrials sector is structurally more growth, with 35% of the market capitalization of the sector belonging to Trivariate’s growth universe today – near all-time highs. In addition, and perhaps most importantly, the percentage of companies in the Industrials sector that have gross margins in the top 10th percentile vs. their own history is also

Read More »

Do You Have All The Data You Want?

Trivariate’s database includes hundreds of pieces of information each day on each stock back for 25 years.   We regularly look at and create custom dashboards for investors, and would encourage you to click on the attached spreadsheets and let us know what data you would like to see – and what sector you care about

Read More »

Level Set – Opposite Day Only Works At Extremes

Years ago, when we were working at Morgan Stanley, we wrote about how we had a growing feeling that any short-term bad news on the economy was going to be subsequently good for stocks, and any incrementally good news on the economy was likely to cause a market sell-off. We titled the work “Bad Is

Read More »

Do You Care About Healthcare Stocks?

The Healthcare sector has lagged year-to-date. Dispersion of returns has also been narrow, with 3-month forward return dispersion only lower in February of 2010 and April of 2018. Source: Trivariate Research Generalist investors are asking questions like: Will Pharmaceuticals be defensive in a market correction? Will the lower earnings estimate forecasts that have been reduced due

Read More »

If You’re a Stock Picker Look at Staples

Over the last few weeks, there have been some mixed macro datapoints, driving bond yields lower.  While the economy appears to be more likely to erode than recover, it is also possible that short-term cyclical inflation could exacerbate the issue. We analyzed 95 years of data and found that Consumer Staples typically do well during

Read More »

Why Technology Investing Is Getting Riskier

Every portfolio manager tells their potential investors that they buy quality stocks. Growth portfolio managers sometimes have various marketing names for this group – from disruptors, to compounders — but in the end, they market to their partners that they own quality stocks. Quality is a big piece of the index: Trivariate has a proprietary

Read More »