Many institutional investors have recently shared with us their concern that earnings expectations are too optimistic. Full year 2024 S&P 500 consensus bottom-up earnings estimates are essentially the same today as they were in the summer of 2023, at $244 per share (see below). Source: Trivariate Research, LP While there is clearly concern that an
Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Technology Strategy.
Inspired by our Trivariate Quant Series call with Dr. Loughran, we downloaded the Loughran-McDonald Master Dictionary and added a few additional words to their well-known list of “weasel” words. These are words used by management teams that are associated with uncertainty, i.e. “wishy-washy.” Some sample keywords are “maybe”, “could”, “almost”, “sometimes”, and “depends.” We then scanned through the
We have written several research notes focus on management decision-making of late, including on spin-offs, IPOs, and secondaries. For ECM-focused investors who are curious about how returns vary please see our recent content attached. Secondaries: Hold’em or Fold’em? Link to Report March 13, 2024 We analyzed the follow-on offerings from US equities since 2000 to
This past week we heard notable commentary from bullish investors as it relates to the current market rally including “run toward the bubble and not away from it” and “dance while the music is on.” Not a single investor asked us if last Tuesday would end up being the peak for the S&P500 (March 1st
We launched Trivariate Research’s Technology Strategy product at the beginning of 2024. We are providing portfolio construction advice for Technology Portfolio Managers on a weekly basis this year, including on “Old” vs. “New” Technology, how to hedge winners in Software, how to think about AI vs. Industrials’ Semiconductors, and other key topics. Below we have
We continue to have a positive view of the US equity market. Our judgment is that it is too early to get defensive, and risk taking will continue to drive the market higher. However, we can report (at least anecdotally) that sentiment is getting into ebullient territory as several investors are employing the “if there
Companies often do secondaries or follow-on offerings as the market appreciates in order to fund growth or enrich the founders or early investors. We analyzed the follow-on offerings from US equities since 2000 to determine if they are good investments. There were relatively few follow-ons in 2022 and 2023, but the pace so far this
The topic of market breadth has been surfacing in our conversations and in the media with increasing frequency. Seemingly every time we are on a panel, or on TV, a macro strategist is pronouncing how breadth is a positive and healthy indicator. We think breadth is favorable for stock selection, but don’t think it means
Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Technology Strategy.
