Research

Our year ahead outlook – We analyzed available alpha, revenue / margins / earnings, valuation, changes to industry recommendations, and stocks to avoid, with our recommendations including… How to get defensive?  With traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples quite expensive, we offer 3 other ways to get defensive without paying massive premiums, including……

We spent last week meeting with investors on the West Coast marketing our 2023 Year Ahead Outlook note published earlier in January. Insane hotel prices, massive airport delays, and biblical rains aside, investors generally asked a lot of questions about consumer strength, earnings, multiples and our sector views. Our high-level view of an “erode not…

When we have talked to institutional investors over the last month, it has become clear that the consensus view of US equities is that the market will go lower in the first part of 2023 and go higher later in the year.  People are cautiously optimistic.  Investors might talk negatively about market conditions, but many…

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to provide insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment…

Click here to watch the video When we founded Trivariate Research in May of 2021, we did so based on the view that there was a hole in the market – one which we could fill by providing prescriptive, practical, and actionable investment advice to investors, advisors, and corporations. Our goal remains to stand in…

Click here to watch the video One of the more differentiated services we provide at Trivariate Research is our analysis of position sizing for our clients. Both from working on the buyside and analyzing client portfolios at Trivariate we have observed that many investors are far more rigorous about their forecasted P&L models than they…

Bottom-up stock pickers should stop worrying about the CPI. The consensus view at the beginning of the week was that we would get a light CPI and a dovish reaction from the market. Investors seem to be programmed that there is a strong correlation between real rates (CPI minus the 10-year yield) and Fed Fund…

One of the more differentiated services we provide at Trivariate Research is our analysis of position sizing for our clients.  Both from working on the buyside and analyzing client portfolios at Trivariate we have observed that many investors are far more rigorous about their forecasted P&L models than they are about position sizing.  There are…

Click here to watch the video Every day the business newswires are filled with sell-side stock analyst ratings, rating changes, and price target changes.  As we write this report, an analyst just posted a $1.00 price target on Carvana (CVNA) –a year ago, a different prominent analyst published a $400 target on the same stock. …

It is hard not to analyze the macro or micro landscape today and see data that appear to be still heavily impacted by COVID. While a lot of people act like and say out loud “COVID is over” – it is obviously not. Both from a public health perspective (100,000 new cases, 5000 new hospitalizations,…