Research

Mergers of Equals – And Reasons Many Fail

Last Fall, Choice Hotels (CHH) announced its intention to buy Wyndham Hotels (WYND).  When we looked up the market capitalization and enterprise value of each, we were surprised to see how close in size the target was to the acquirer.  It inspired us to take a more detailed look at deals where the market cap.

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In Case You Missed It – Monthly Digest: January 2024

2024 is off to a busy start for us at Trivariate. On top of our regular way research and slew of in-person client meetings in New York, Connecticut, Boston, Texas, and Florida, we wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times (How investors should navigate the slump in IPOs) and joined Josh Brown’s Compound & Friends

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Level Set – 35 Billion Reasons to Care About Earnings

Many high frequency quants purposely avoid trading stocks around earnings – because their algorithms are less efficacious when new information about the P&L of reporting companies becomes available. You read that right – a large and growing cohort of firms have employees who only trade in stocks when they are not reporting results. The earnings

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Monthly Digest – January 2024

2024 is off to a busy start for us at Trivariate. On top of our regular way research and slew of in-person client meetings in New York, Connecticut, Boston, Texas, and Florida, we wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times (How investors should navigate the slump in IPOs) and joined Josh Brown’s Compound & Friends

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Level Set – The US Election Playbook: Is Asking Even Relevant?

One of our least favorite subject matters to write about is politics. Firstly, it is likely too early to have a productive read on what will happen in the 2024 elections. Secondly, we think in many cases the conventional wisdom about what is politically good or bad for markets is overwhelmed by other factors, like

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Where is the Available Alpha in Consumer Stocks?

We search all the stocks in both the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors to identify alpha opportunities.   The best sub-industries for alpha generation include.. 202401_Where_is_the_Available_Alpha_in_Consumer_StocksDownload

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How To Combine Growth And Value To Win

Over the last few months, we have published on strategies for both growth and value portfolio managers. Among growth stocks, we prefer high quality and low forecasted revenue growth stocks.  Among value, we prefer low beta and avoiding poor free cash flow conversion.  Today, we combine the best of our growth and value investing strategies

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Level Set – The Case for Gross Margin Expansion

In our year ahead outlook (2024 Year Ahead Outlook) we published earlier in January we posit that one of the reasons to be bullish on US equities is that the gross margins for the average company are likely to expand. Stocks typically experience asymmetrically higher valuation (on EV-to-Gross Profit or Price-to-Forward Earnings) when their gross

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