Research

VIDEO – The Consumer Conundrum: Which Stocks Make Sense Today?

Background: One of the biggest macro investment controversies is the state of the US consumer. Jobs data remain relatively strong, but confidence is low. The stocks exposed to the Consumer have materially lagged. Hence, we investigate the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in today’s research. Stock ideas: We offer long / short Consumer Staples

Read More »

The Consumer Conundrum: Which Stocks Make Sense Today?

Background: One of the biggest macro investment controversies is the state of the US consumer. Jobs data remain relatively strong, but confidence is low. The stocks exposed to the Consumer have materially lagged. Hence, we investigate the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in today’s research. We continue to recommend investors’ Underweight Consumer Discretionary: Consumer

Read More »

Level Set – Change in Consensus Sentiment, Mag 7, and Barbell

We did several meetings this past week, and as is always the case, sentiment lags price momentum by two weeks. Three weeks ago, when we spent two days doing meetings in Canada, sentiment was decidedly negative. The market had declined well more than 10% year-to-date, and emotions were running high. This past week we spent

Read More »

Level Set: Can ChatGPT o3 “Cover” Nvidia?

For this week’s Level Set we were thinking of writing about the somewhat better Bank and Technology earnings so far in Q1 than previously expected, the lag between the tariffs and the fundamentals, and our view that on the margin we like risk-taking a bit less today than we did a week ago. We don’t

Read More »

VIDEO – Is Now The Time To Buy Semiconductors?

We considered the revenue cycle, gross margins, operating expenses, inventory, capital spending, factor efficacy, China, and AI. We even looked at valuation, even though it is not a particularly good reason to buy one Semiconductor over another. Read our latest research for our conclusion.

Read More »

Is Now The Time To Buy Semiconductors?

We considered the revenue cycle, gross margins, operating expenses, inventory, capital spending, factor efficacy, China, and AI. We even looked at valuation, even though it is not a particularly good reason to buy one Semiconductor over another. Our conclusion is…. Download

Read More »

VIDEO – Earnings And The Penalty For Missing

We think the consensus numbers need to be materially lowered, and the penalty for downward revisions has been harsh. This combination keeps us cautious with so many companies about to report earnings in the next two weeks. Our new estimates and judgment about where estimates are relatively more and less achievable are…

Read More »

Level Set: This Is Not the End of US Exceptionalism, There’s No Weakening Dollar Playbook, and Banks Don’t Work in Down Markets

We have heard several times in our recent meetings, read articles, and watched scrolling on the screens of popular financial news media that this recent weak period likely marks the end of American exceptionalism in terms of the relative performance of US equities. There is a large and growing cohort of people that now think

Read More »

Earnings And The Penalty For Missing

We think the consensus numbers need to be materially lowered, and the penalty for downward revisions has been harsh. This combination keeps us cautious with so many companies about to report earnings in the next two weeks. Our new estimates and judgment about where estimates are relatively more and less achievable are… Download

Read More »

Valuation – Now and When It Matters

Background: Given the substantial moves in the market and individual stocks in the last few weeks, we thought we would take a look at valuation and provide insights about key valuation metrics and their efficacy in today’s work. We can provide detailed information on each individual security or any market sub-group, so please don’t hesitate

Read More »