Research

Summary: We have developed a proprietary quantitative model to predict subsequent stock returns for all Industrials stocks that are not: (1) hyper growth, (2) high dividend yielding, (3) cheap for a reason, and (4) in the lowest quality quartile of our substance model we label “junk.” The model consists of seven signals that are intentionally

In our two recent notes on growth investing, we concluded that low “growth beta”, high quality growth stocks outperform, and avoiding the fastest growing growth stocks is prudent. Given the positive feedback we received on our growth quality framework, we decided to investigate quality investing in the value universe in today’s research. Less than 10%

The rally in the 10-year bond from 4.99% in mid-October to 4.66% today catalyzed a strong stock market rally. Nearly an annual rate of return (7.23% for the S&P500, 9.55% for the Nasdaq, and 4.18% for the Russell 2000) has been achieved over the last ten trading sessions. We always say that nothing changes investor

Summary: There’s Been a Substantial Valuation Correction in Machinery and Electrical Equipment Within Industrials, we have been recommending that investors short electrical equipment and machinery. The combination of high inventory-to-sales and high valuation vs. history were the pillars of our negative stance. Over the last two months though, we have seen 33% price-to-forward earnings and

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Growth Beta.

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on IPOs.

We set out to create a better way to assess the risk of individual growth stocks by creating a “growth beta” and computing a “growth alpha.”  We discovered some important frameworks for growth stock investors and have some advice for constructing growth stock portfolios among the top 3000 equites in today’s research.  Our style framework

The 2-year US government bond has been offering a higher yield than the 10-year bond for 19 months now, and it stands to reason that at some point it will “un-invert.” It has been compelling to buy the shorter duration bonds relative to the 10-year yield for a while. Moreover, it seems risky to us

The last two years we have seen the fewest back-to-back years for initial public offerings of greater than $1 billion since 2008 and 2009.  2021 was a record year driven largely by SPACs, and also correlated to the highest nominal GDP in the US in nearly a half century.  Tighter financial conditions, concerns about an

Detailed in our October 29th Level Set, our current highest conviction investment ideas are: Overweight Energy. Energy has low earnings expectations, compelling valuation, favorable demand / supply dynamics, and is not loved. This is our top investment idea for the next two to three years. We would own E&Ps, integrated oil companies, and oil services.