Research

Level Set – Upper End of the Range and Opportunities

To quote the New Yorker Magazine, the “Talk of the Town” this week was the surprising resiliency and strength of the US equity market in the face of what seems like obviously deteriorating risk-reward. The consensus view from our recent conversations is that the S&P500 is likely range bound and at the upper end of

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The State of The US Consumer

Q4 of 2022 was the first time in over 30 years where the S&P500 was up more than 5% in a quarter and the consumer discretionary sector was down more than 10% during that same quarter.  That has powerfully reversed year-to-date, and while huge moves in AMZN and TSLA are partially responsible,  many of the

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Level Set – Inconsistencies and Opportunities

Most of the news and macro commentary in the last week has been about the Fed. We have been writing since the Fall of 2021 that the perception about interest rates is statistically significantly associated with the price-to-forward earnings for the S&P500, and the relationship is even more pronounced for growth stocks. Our work shows

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Level Set – Investors Are Uncertain, The Market Isn’t

The range of opinions about what could happen to the US equity market expressed by investors in our recent conversations have been as wide as any time we can remember. Some investors think the Fed has been exceedingly hawkish. Some think the Fed was too late to begin raising rates but now they think accommodation

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Buybacks, M&A, and Their Consequences

At Trivariate we regularly study corporate capital uses and evaluate management teams’ decision-making. We showed previously that buybacks have not been efficacious at predicting subsequent stock performance.  Companies doing large share repurchases have not meaningfully outperformed companies that dilute their share count on a relative-to-industry and volatility-adjusted basis. Buybacks are much more effective when companies

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VIDEO – Times are Changing’

We thought conditions looked far worse than 3 months ago a couple of weeks ago, with valuation, speculation, interest rates, and earnings expectations the changing forces causing our negativity. But that was BEFORE SVB and tightening financial conditions.

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Level Set – Volatility Leads to Underperformance, Price-to-IHLATB

A couple of weeks ago we wrote that “times were changing” due to a combination of rising rates and the likelihood of an incrementally hawkish Fed, excessively optimistic 2024 bottom-up earnings estimates, less compelling absolute (S&P500 multiple expanded from below 15x 2023 estimates to 18x) and relative (to short-term government bonds) valuation and increasing speculation

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