Research

We have been analyzing Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) for over 20 years (see the attached New York Times article written by Pulitzer Prize winner Gretchen Morgenson where she interviews us on the stock-based compensation of Semiconductor companies nearly 20 years ago (NY Times).  Episodically we get asked about whether this issue should matter, and we address

The drawdown at the beginning of this month prompted us to publish a series of sell-off playbooks tailored to Growth, Value, and Technology investors. As we’ve written many times, making short-term market predictions is generally unproductive for equity investors. However, considering the recent market volatility, a weakening consumer, and elevated Q4 2024 earnings estimates, we

We think we are pretty good at knowing what already happened, and we are aspirational that we can be decent in some circumstances at predicting what might happen in the future. But all of this could be grandiose. After all, it is often very challenging to explain what actually happened in shorter time frames. What

We have written many times that it is a waste of time for an equity investor to try to make short-term market calls. After all, most of the signals that investors use to make one-month market calls turn out to be little “boo boos” in logic, as they are volatility, not directional, gauges for the

We analyzed stocks with high and low growth beta by substance (high, mid, low, junk) and show the performance of each of the eight buckets since 1999.  High growth beta growth stocks in the bottom half of quality are down over 24 years!  By far the best performing bucket is low growth beta growth stocks

We have been scouring the question-and-answer portions of earnings call transcripts to assess key areas of interest from analysts.  We address four such issues in today’s Trivariate Transcript Analyzer:  Tariffs, COVID, Yen, and Pricing. 202408_Analyst_QuestionsDownload

We researched the key issues facing growth investors, and these are the five most important insights that all growth investors should know: Point 1:  Owning high-quality growth stocks and avoiding low-quality growth stocks is crucial for growth investing. Point 2: To pick stocks among high-quality growth, use improving margins, revenue acceleration, and upward revisions. Buying

For many years, there have been some well-known, style-based mantras for both fundamental and quantitative investors. On the growth side, momentum works. It is common for growth portfolio managers to pull up a price chart while hearing a fundamental pitch and assess whether price action comports with the story. Shorting growth stocks at highs has

The most clicked on chart on the US consumer was our short ideas chart, likely fueled by BROS, and these others…. Several of our analyses in the last 18 months have pointed to gross margins as a key variable for security selection.  A crucial part of any company’s margin trajectory is its ability to take

Typically when there is market volatility, it doesn’t end immediately.   In case we get into a more prolonged correction, we analyzed the previous ten times the S&P500 retreated 10 percent or more in the last 25 years to examine the correction playbook for investors. We recently published playbooks for value, growth, and technology investors.