For this week’s Level Set we were thinking of writing about the somewhat better Bank and Technology earnings so far in Q1 than previously expected, the lag between the tariffs and the fundamentals, and our view that on the margin we like risk-taking a bit less today than we did a week ago. We don’t
We considered the revenue cycle, gross margins, operating expenses, inventory, capital spending, factor efficacy, China, and AI. We even looked at valuation, even though it is not a particularly good reason to buy one Semiconductor over another. Read our latest research for our conclusion.
We considered the revenue cycle, gross margins, operating expenses, inventory, capital spending, factor efficacy, China, and AI. We even looked at valuation, even though it is not a particularly good reason to buy one Semiconductor over another. Our conclusion is…. Download
We think the consensus numbers need to be materially lowered, and the penalty for downward revisions has been harsh. This combination keeps us cautious with so many companies about to report earnings in the next two weeks. Our new estimates and judgment about where estimates are relatively more and less achievable are…
We have heard several times in our recent meetings, read articles, and watched scrolling on the screens of popular financial news media that this recent weak period likely marks the end of American exceptionalism in terms of the relative performance of US equities. There is a large and growing cohort of people that now think
We think the consensus numbers need to be materially lowered, and the penalty for downward revisions has been harsh. This combination keeps us cautious with so many companies about to report earnings in the next two weeks. Our new estimates and judgment about where estimates are relatively more and less achievable are… Download
Background: Given the substantial moves in the market and individual stocks in the last few weeks, we thought we would take a look at valuation and provide insights about key valuation metrics and their efficacy in today’s work. We can provide detailed information on each individual security or any market sub-group, so please don’t hesitate
We are less optimistic about the US equity market now compared to last week. Our updated view is a combination of sustained tariffs of 10% on many countries for 90 days (maybe) and an escalation to a triple-digit percentage tariff war with China. We’d love to tell you we have some way to estimate the
Click here to read the corresponding research note.
Our thoughts for this year were out of consensus on January 6th, 2025 when we published our 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook we said (excerpted below): “New policies not bullish?: We think investors have too benign an interpretation of potential new policies and their impact on US earnings….we have not seen stocks sell off on the specter
