Research

NVDA history lesson: NVDA was $14.27 on January 5th of 2023, and subsequently rose to $135.58 on June 18th of 2024, a 9.5x appreciation. NVDA bottomed at $98.91 on August 7th, a 27% decline from its high. NVDA went from $3.20 early in 2019 to $30.95 late in 2021, for a 9.7x appreciation. But the stock then fell

We have long argued that it is challenging to make one-month market calls. Most of the signals that investors use are volatility gauges, and hence, a systematic approach to a one-month market call is a waste of time and money. However, many investors make shorter-term sector calls, and we focus on this challenge – one-month

We analyzed each follow-on offering over the last 25 years following the offer date. We discovered several attributes that are investable including… Download  

We have long argued that it is challenging to make one-month market calls. Most of the signals that investors use are volatility gauges, and hence, a systematic approach to a one-month market call is a waste of time and money. However, many investors make shorter-term sector calls, and we focus on this challenge – one-month

After the Fed Action, What Is Next? Beginning in July, we saw a combination of factors that led us to believe we were likely to have a growth scare. With the S&P500 now rallying back to 0.7% from an all-time high, we had several conversations with investors in recent days about potential catalysts for the

We have been analyzing Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) for over 20 years (see the attached New York Times article written by Pulitzer Prize winner Gretchen Morgenson where she interviews us on the stock-based compensation of Semiconductor companies nearly 20 years ago (NY Times)). Episodically we get asked about whether this issue should matter, and we address

One of the biggest challenges for investors over the last three years has been determining how much mega-cap Technology and Communications Services they should own. Investors are constantly asking about breadth, commenting about the concentration of returns, and wondering about technological moats, competitive capital spending, and valuation, among other considerations. Before we dive in, we

We highlight 7 key issues every Technology investor should be aware of, including … Download  

One of the biggest challenges for investors over the last three years has been determining how much mega-cap Technology and Communications Services they should own. Investors are constantly asking about breadth, commenting about the concentration of returns, and wondering about technological moats, competitive capital spending, and valuation, among other considerations. Before we dive in, we

Investors often come back from “hols” in September with a renewed and intense focus. They are eager to gauge how the third quarter is tracking, update models that potentially grew stale over the summer, and attend major conferences in Technology, Healthcare, and Industrials, among others, in the first two weeks of September. During several conversations