Research

As earnings season progresses, we thought we would highlight the key themes and trends we observed. Dispersion has been notable and in aggregate, stocks have performed well during earnings season to-date. The weak performance of the transports industry is noteworthy in our view, including UPS, trucking stocks, and the rails, where clearly a slowdown in

To read Trivariate’s research note on Growth, AI, FED, and FAANGM click here.

We are not sure of the ultimate impact – probably no one is – but in the next ten to twenty years it is likely that somewhere between 20 and 50% of all human activity will be severely impacted or even totally commoditized by A.I.  This could have a massive implication on humankind and the

Several times this week, investors have mentioned to us the surprisingly low VIX and if there are any investible implications. The consensus thought appears to be that the VIX is “wrong” and that buying equities is not as low risk as this popular gauge indicates. After all, there appears to be a rather pronounced negative

To read Trivariate’s research note on Micro Caps click here.

We have noticed over the past year that the smaller the market cap. the cheaper the median stock is on price-to-forward earnings. There are several reasons micro-caps might lag, including:  more US-centric work forces where wage pressure is more acute; disproportionately higher costs of capital when financial conditions are tight; less negotiating power and scale

We designed the name Trivariate to evoke three variables – macro, quant, and fundamental – all applied to equities. We believe understanding and applying ideas from the macro world; ingesting, measuring, and systematically processing and forecasting from the quantitative world; and diving into fundamentals are all necessary to successfully invest in equities. But over the

To read Trivariate’s research note on Free Cash Flow Conversion click here.

We see the macro backdrop as directionally negative.  The economy is more likely to erode than improve, financial conditions are tight, and heightened regulation on banks seems imminent.  This will negatively impact growth. As such, cash flow generation will become increasingly important.  In today’s report, we analyze free cash flow and changes and levels of

Our typical Level Set is a five-minute read on key debates, new data, evolving thoughts, and answers to important client questions. This week we are publishing a 45 minute comprehensive overview that covers: The overall market outlook, including corporate earnings, margins, and valuation Capital use – buybacks, M&A an dividends Risks – macro trends and