Research

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if

For months we have reiterated our view on two important sector themes- bearishness on US retailers with large store footprints and optimism around AI deployment. Last week our conviction grew on both fronts as TGT reported disappointing results and NVDA posted yet another upside surprise. Repugnant victory lap aside, the need to constantly evolve our

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We spent the previous 25 years focused largely on US equities, and were aware that our colleagues often had pretty rapidly changing perceptions about interest rates.  Subsequent to the all-time low interest rate in the history of the United States, post-COVID, dynamics changed.  What ensued was a massive negative correlation between the perception about interest rates

We think any time an investor buys a stock, they should know whether the stock trades like many other stocks, or relatively few. This concept, we refer to as replicability. We define the replicability of a stock as the number of other stocks that have a correlation higher than 0.7 with it over the last

The S&P500 and the Nasdaq are both up more than 11% year-to-date, partly fueled by a growing belief that an anticipated economic correction may not occur. Typically, when economic expectations improve, value stocks do well. This year, however, value stocks have lagged the market by more than 5% (see below), up just over 4% in

Chart 1: Consumer Staples Have the Highest Company-Specific Risk We have a proprietary way of computing company-specific risk (CSR). We look at the beta, size, style, substance, liquidity, and momentum of every stock, and what is left over we call CSR. What might surprise some Portfolio Managers is that Consumer Staples are the most idiosyncratic

The Industrials sector is structurally more growth, with 35% of the market capitalization of the sector belonging to Trivariate’s growth universe today – near all-time highs. In addition, and perhaps most importantly, the percentage of companies in the Industrials sector that have gross margins in the top 10th percentile vs. their own history is also

Trivariate’s database includes hundreds of pieces of information each day on each stock back for 25 years.   We regularly look at and create custom dashboards for investors, and would encourage you to click on the attached spreadsheets and let us know what data you would like to see – and what sector you care about

Years ago, when we were working at Morgan Stanley, we wrote about how we had a growing feeling that any short-term bad news on the economy was going to be subsequently good for stocks, and any incrementally good news on the economy was likely to cause a market sell-off. We titled the work “Bad Is