Research

Using LP work to pick up on negative trends for retailers. Our language processing (LP) work on the earnings transcripts and webcast presentations of 130 US retailers has been influencing our cautious view of that industry. There are three main themes. Firstly, there is shrink and its impact on same-store “comps.” The number of mentions

Summary: Industrials Estimates Don’t Include Union Labor Increases? Will industrials with union labor see wage pressure? We think so. We went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website and looked for all industrials with collective bargaining agreements with at least some of their employees. We then did our best to take the number of employees

To read Trivariate’s recent research note on the consumer sectors click here.

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment

In case you missed it, below is a digest of the most clicked on notes and videos with some key charts/tables that we’ve published month-to-date.  We’ve written about quality growth, price momentum, earnings, multiples, and the industrials and consumer sectors to name a few. In our pipeline, we are working on a spin-offs piece, computing

For generalist PMs and CIOs, the health of the US consumer and what to do with the related stocks appear at a crossroads. For consumer PMs and analysts, fishing for perspective outside of their typical pond also seems important. Hence, the timing of today’s inaugural Trivariate Consumer Level Set could not be better. We will

It became clear in August that the overwhelming consensus expectation was that the market would behave like a double-breaking putt. September would be a bad month for US equities, and then the market would rally into year end and finish the year at highs. So far, at least the first part of that is playing

To read Trivariate’s recent note on momentum click here.

At the index level, the US equity market is having a strong year so far in 2023. The S&P500 is up 16% year-to-date and the Nasdaq is up 31%. Things should be sweet. But with the sharp pullback on Friday, the S&P500 performance is exactly 0.00% this quarter. All those trades, and not a dollar

Price can disconnect from fundamentals for some time.  Some cyclicals in which investors believe in the long-term fundamentals (semiconductors, homebuilders, machinery) have performed relatively well this year despite obvious signs of a slowdown in some cases, while others lacking a long-term dream (airlines) have performed poorly.  In the end, saying you will focus on price