Research

We think the consensus numbers need to be materially lowered, and the penalty for downward revisions has been harsh. This combination keeps us cautious with so many companies about to report earnings in the next two weeks. Our new estimates and judgment about where estimates are relatively more and less achievable are… Download

Background: Given the substantial moves in the market and individual stocks in the last few weeks, we thought we would take a look at valuation and provide insights about key valuation metrics and their efficacy in today’s work. We can provide detailed information on each individual security or any market sub-group, so please don’t hesitate

We are less optimistic about the US equity market now compared to last week. Our updated view is a combination of sustained tariffs of 10% on many countries for 90 days (maybe) and an escalation to a triple-digit percentage tariff war with China. We’d love to tell you we have some way to estimate the

Click here to read the corresponding research note.

Our thoughts for this year were out of consensus on January 6th, 2025 when we published our 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook we said (excerpted below): “New policies not bullish?: We think investors have too benign an interpretation of potential new policies and their impact on US earnings….we have not seen stocks sell off on the specter

Many investors continue to question the potential return on capital spending from the AI-exposed players and wonder whether the capital spending and inventory landscape are reasonable for the average stock to deliver margin expansion. There have been huge moves in inventory and capital spending in the last few years, and we think these should be

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment

Many investors continue to question the potential return on capital spending from the AI-exposed players and wonder whether the capital spending and inventory landscape are reasonable for the average stock to deliver margin expansion. There have been huge moves in inventory and capital spending in the last few years, and we think these should be

US GDP Is Slowing The spike in the VIX and the market sell-off this past week is not surprising in our view. While many were calling for a tactical bounce in risk-taking, we have learned that making short-term market calls is a fool’s game. Our primary concern for the market is that we see a

We were asked several times this week about the sell-off in the market, when the market could bottom, and what might work in a recovery. As we wrote last week, we really want to get bullish, because nothing is better than being a contrarian bull now that seemingly everyone is cautious again. However, we think