If stagflation were a stock, it would be up off of lows. The consensus has rightfully assigned a very low probability of stagflation appearing over the past couple of years. Nominal GDP has been strong, and inflation has peaked and rolled over. But trends are slowly changing. While a slowing economy and stubborn inflation may
The stock market is having a bad month. The S&P500 is down 5% this month, owing primarily to changes in the perception of interest rates. As we show below, there is a strongly negative and statistically significant relationship between 24-month Fed Fund Futures (the perception about interest rates two years from now) and the price-to-forward
Given the huge run in NVDA and other AI-Semiconductor stocks, many investors have been asking about a potentially imminent rollover. Even though NVDA’s May 22nd earnings announcement is more than a month away, diversifying exposure consistently comes up in our meetings. We thought it was prudent to look for Technology stocks that trade with a relatively
Click here to read the corresponding research note.
In last week’s Level Set Level Set – The Bull Case Narrative Revisited we offered three reasons why we are bullish on US equities: easy financial conditions, gross margin expansion, and earnings growth. Today, we address what might cause the market to rollover and some defensive ideas for those over-exposed to AI-semiconductors: Tightening financial conditions
We comprehensively analyzed gross margins for US corporations, and how they relate to valuation. Our conclusion is that…
We have been arguing for several months and still believe that there are three primary reasons the market is likely to continue to rally. An Accommodative Fed Gross Margin Expansion Earnings Growth for Several Years The first reason we are maintaining our bullish stance is our expectation that the Fed will eventually be accommodative, and
Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Technology Strategy.
At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment
We evaluated the efficacy of stock buybacks within the Technology sector. Given our longstanding view that there are several situations where buybacks are not effective, we broke down the Technology sector by style, substance, industry and profitability …
