Research

Detailed in our October 29th Level Set, our current highest conviction investment ideas are: Overweight Energy. Energy has low earnings expectations, compelling valuation, favorable demand / supply dynamics, and is not loved. This is our top investment idea for the next two to three years. We would own E&Ps, integrated oil companies, and oil services.

While there is ample uncertainty about the overall market direction, with a laundry list of concerns, including geopolitical risk, dysfunction in Washington, higher bond yields, and mixed earnings results, we contend there are ample opportunities to generate alpha on both the long & short side. As we wrote in early October, in our ‘What Happened

In searching for stock ideas, we have noticed stocks in several industries have not generated substantial shareholder value when compared to stock market lows of March of 2020. Rate sensitivity, GLP-1s (Ozempic), shrink and other trends have certainly emerged over the last 3.5 years pressuring some stocks and industries disproportionately, but we thought we’d scour

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on the US Consumer.

The State of the US Consumer Recently generalist investors have been asking us about the state of the US consumer. A strong retail sales figure has some investors questioning whether “good news on the economy is bad for stocks” because it alters their expected Fed path. Others are more generally curious about revenue potential for

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on why small caps are not that cheap.

To read Trivariate’s research note on Spin-Off’s click here.

The consensus view is that mega / large cap stocks are expensive relative to small caps, and many investors we speak to argue that small cap valuation is compelling. The cap-weighted price-to-forward earnings of the Top 500 US equities by market capitalization is near a 20-year high vs. the equally weighted price-to-forward earnings (see below),

While the historical results of spin-offs are mixed, and there are many different nuances and strategies related to these corporate actions, there is no doubt that management teams are increasingly being advised about the potential to unlock or create value through spins.  Conglomerates, businesses in multiple end-markets and sectors, and those valued on a sum-of-the-parts

The sell-off of heavily indebted companies as financial conditions have tightened has been among the key subjects of our conversations with investors in NY and London over the last ten days. Coinciding with tighter financial conditions (see below), the market has more sharply sold off. Source: Bloomberg, Trivariate Research, LP Heavily indebted companies have also