Research

Oil prices have been range bound for nearly two years, with surprisingly little volatility given some clear demand and supply disappointments.  Energy stocks in the interim period have in some ways materially improved.   The percentage of stocks that are in Trivariate’s highest quality substance quartile, we call “High Quality,” is now higher than the percentage of

Two of the best performing stocks year-to-date, NVDA and CMG, have recently announced 10:1 and 50:1 stock splits, respectively, catalyzing us to investigate the performance of stock splits historically.  While this is a well-traversed area of academic and Wall Street research, we wanted to investigate this the “Trivariate Way” to see if there were any

A week ago, an investor mentioned to us that after NVDA’s earnings report on May 22nd, earnings season was essentially over. That turned out to be a huge exaggeration if you were long Software or short Retailers. For Software, the growing concern over the last year about AI disrupting that industry is now reaching a

Last month, we updated our outlook on the U.S. equity market to a more neutral stance – we feel like the next 10% move in the market (up or down) is probably equally balanced. While we recognize the potential for margin expansion to drive equity prices higher, we also acknowledge the increased risk of stagflation,

Two of the best performing stocks year-to-date, NVDA and CMG, have recently announced 10:1 and 50:1 stock splits, respectively, catalyzing us to investigate the performance of stock splits historically.  While this is a well-traversed area of academic and Wall Street research, we wanted to investigate this the “Trivariate Way” to see if there were any

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if

For months we have reiterated our view on two important sector themes- bearishness on US retailers with large store footprints and optimism around AI deployment. Last week our conviction grew on both fronts as TGT reported disappointing results and NVDA posted yet another upside surprise. Repugnant victory lap aside, the need to constantly evolve our

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We spent the previous 25 years focused largely on US equities, and were aware that our colleagues often had pretty rapidly changing perceptions about interest rates.  Subsequent to the all-time low interest rate in the history of the United States, post-COVID, dynamics changed.  What ensued was a massive negative correlation between the perception about interest rates