Research

There is not much debate about the US consumer – it is slowing.   Whether it’s last week’s retail sales, rising 90-day credit card delinquencies, or a slowdown in auto demand, there’s ample evidence that the consumer is beginning to retrench.  Our proprietary gauge of consumer activity shows a marked slowdown.  However, we (and evidently COF

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Technology Strategy.

No one wants to manage a portfolio of US equities for the next several years and not have exposure to AI. A decade from now, they do not want to say, “I missed the theme because I could never make the valuation work,” or “there were so many fake-AI companies I wanted to avoid” or

Several investors have recently mentioned to us that they are increasingly nervous about the strong price momentum in software and semiconductors.  Software with below average revenue growth that is accelerating, as well as AI-related semiconductors have strongly appreciated since the beginning of 2023.  This strong performance has occurred with average volatility vs. history and with

Click here to read the corresponding research note.

The subject matter in our recent research has been diverse – from risks that could introduce volatility into earnings and available alpha, to the case for gross margin expansion for the average stock. We have also focused on management decision making- earlier this week we published a note on “mergers of equals” (Mergers of Equals

Within semiconductors, assessing AI vs. industrials exposure is key.  AI-centric semis have strongly outperformed, but is it time to toggle to industrials semis?  We think… 20240208_Technology_Strategy_AI_vs_Industrials_SemisDownload

Last Fall, Choice Hotels (CHH) announced its intention to buy Wyndham Hotels (WYND).  When we looked up the market capitalization and enterprise value of each, we were surprised to see how close in size the target was to the acquirer.  It inspired us to take a more detailed look at deals where the market cap.

2024 is off to a busy start for us at Trivariate. On top of our regular way research and slew of in-person client meetings in New York, Connecticut, Boston, Texas, and Florida, we wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times (How investors should navigate the slump in IPOs) and joined Josh Brown’s Compound & Friends

Many high frequency quants purposely avoid trading stocks around earnings – because their algorithms are less efficacious when new information about the P&L of reporting companies becomes available. You read that right – a large and growing cohort of firms have employees who only trade in stocks when they are not reporting results. The earnings