With a backdrop of an “eroding but not imploding economy”, we contend there are two ways to outperform. One, we recommend owning cheap cyclicals with low expectations where there can be substantial balance sheet repair even in a slowing economy. Two, we like stocks that can grow through this declining part of the economic cycle,
Several investors in our meetings last week seemed surprised that the market did not sell off harder after the jobs report nine days ago. Our initial thought was that the clearly strong report would cause a big market pullback and be interpreted as hawkish. But earlier last week, the relatively muted response (the S&P500 was
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Over the last two decades, an average of 20 companies initiate a dividend each year, though fewer have initiated dividends over the last decade. Following annual meetings and board authorizations early in the calendar year, far more dividend initiations occur in February than any other month during the calendar year. Hence, we thought analyzing dividend
There were two consensus views heading into this calendar year. One – the market would go down in the first half of the year and up in the second half of the year. Two – that you can’t own stocks that lose money / burn cash. Both notions have been proven completely wrong year-to-date. Given
Click here to watch the video We have recommended that our clients overweight their exposure to energy stocks since we started Trivariate Research in 2021. After a huge run of outperformance, many of the investors we speak to are wondering if it is time to take profits. The recent disconnect between energy stocks and oil
We have been communicating our year-ahead outlook to dozens of investors around the country over the last few weeks and wanted to summarize our top ideas, pushback and what we are watching in today’s Level Set. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, our view is that the economy, and therefore corporate earnings,
Click here to watch the video We spent last week meeting with investors on the West Coast marketing our 2023 Year Ahead Outlook note published earlier in January. Insane hotel prices, massive airport delays, and biblical rains aside, investors generally asked a lot of questions about consumer strength, earnings, multiples and our sector views. Our
We have recommended that our clients overweight their exposure to energy stocks since we started Trivariate Research in 2021. After a huge run of outperformance, many of the investors we speak to are wondering if it is time to take profits. The recent disconnect between energy stocks and oil prices, where stocks have held flattish
