Research

US GDP Is Slowing The spike in the VIX and the market sell-off this past week is not surprising in our view. While many were calling for a tactical bounce in risk-taking, we have learned that making short-term market calls is a fool’s game. Our primary concern for the market is that we see a

We were asked several times this week about the sell-off in the market, when the market could bottom, and what might work in a recovery. As we wrote last week, we really want to get bullish, because nothing is better than being a contrarian bull now that seemingly everyone is cautious again. However, we think

Buybacks in aggregate have been a waste of capital: There is ample evidence that management teams of most companies should be questioning the value of large share buybacks. On average, among mega-/large-cap stocks they were not rewarded, as share reductions over a 12-month period of 0.5% to 2.05% resulted in similar subsequent volatility-adjusted performance compared

Buybacks in aggregate have been a waste of capital: There is ample evidence that management teams of most companies should be questioning the value of large share buybacks. On average, among mega-/large-cap stocks they were not rewarded, as share reductions over a 12-month period of 0.5% to 2.05% resulted in similar subsequent volatility-adjusted performance compared

We want to get bullish on the market. Why? Because the best set-up is one where you are a contrarian bull, and you are ultimately proven to be right. We had that feeling in our year-ahead outlook in January 2023, and again, to a lesser extent, in January 2024. This year, in January 2025 (see

We track the number of stocks that are greater than $100 billion market cap. over time. There were 102 at the end of February, but 94 as of last night’s close given the sell-off this month (the S&P500 is down 5.7% month-to-date). Many investors are looking to find value in this sell-off–likely looking to buy

We track the number of stocks that are greater than $100 billion market cap. over time. There were 102 at the end of February, but 94 as of last night’s close given the sell-off this month (the S&P500 is down 5.7% month-to-date). Many investors are looking to find value in this sell-off–likely looking to buy

An investor asked us recently about the beta of Technology stocks, and in particular to identify those with asymmetry – meaning the stocks that have measurably higher beta in down markets than in up markets. We think investors should know which stocks they own are higher beta in down markets than in up markets to

Since 2023 we have identified and written about major growth themes that are poised to continue to grow above GDP for the next several years. These include widely known categories of stocks like AI Semiconductors, AI Software, Power / Utilities, and Electrification Industrials. Most portfolio managers have some or substantial exposure to these themes, as

An investor asked us recently about the beta of Technology stocks, and in particular to identify those with asymmetry – meaning the stocks that have measurably higher beta in down markets than in up markets. We think investors should know which stocks they own are higher beta in down markets than in up markets to