Research

Many cross-asset investors have been arguing they like small cap stocks over large cap stocks, citing extreme valuation and the Fed cycle as catalysts. Last week, we focused on large cap value stocks, arguing that they may have less upside given their lower beta, lack of Financials in the universe (if investors think rates will help),

This Week Is Better than Last Week When the China stimulus was announced this week, our initial reaction was that this is a new and incremental positive. Some investors have been waiting for a stimulus announcement for several quarters, so the timing this past week was surprising, and we have concluded the intervention is incrementally

With recent interest rate cuts, many investors are seeking insights on Mega/Large Cap Value (LCV) stocks. Our analysis dives into the current state of this sector, characterized by a number of viable investment options and significant changes in market dynamics. Changing LCV universe: The number of LCV stocks has dwindled to just 65, as the Financials

There’s Nothing Worse than a Wrong Consensus Bear Nothing is worse than being a consensus bear when the market keeps rallying. Most people know that September is typically a volatile month, and the average September returns are the worst of any month of the year. We flagged it, and so did everyone else. With it

We analyzed each follow-on offering over the last 25 years following the offer date. We discovered several attributes that are investable including…

NVDA history lesson: NVDA was $14.27 on January 5th of 2023, and subsequently rose to $135.58 on June 18th of 2024, a 9.5x appreciation. NVDA bottomed at $98.91 on August 7th, a 27% decline from its high. NVDA went from $3.20 early in 2019 to $30.95 late in 2021, for a 9.7x appreciation. But the stock then fell

We have long argued that it is challenging to make one-month market calls. Most of the signals that investors use are volatility gauges, and hence, a systematic approach to a one-month market call is a waste of time and money. However, many investors make shorter-term sector calls, and we focus on this challenge – one-month

We analyzed each follow-on offering over the last 25 years following the offer date. We discovered several attributes that are investable including… Download  

We have long argued that it is challenging to make one-month market calls. Most of the signals that investors use are volatility gauges, and hence, a systematic approach to a one-month market call is a waste of time and money. However, many investors make shorter-term sector calls, and we focus on this challenge – one-month

After the Fed Action, What Is Next? Beginning in July, we saw a combination of factors that led us to believe we were likely to have a growth scare. With the S&P500 now rallying back to 0.7% from an all-time high, we had several conversations with investors in recent days about potential catalysts for the