Research

Bottom-up stock pickers should stop worrying about the CPI. The consensus view at the beginning of the week was that we would get a light CPI and a dovish reaction from the market. Investors seem to be programmed that there is a strong correlation between real rates (CPI minus the 10-year yield) and Fed Fund

One of the more differentiated services we provide at Trivariate Research is our analysis of position sizing for our clients.  Both from working on the buyside and analyzing client portfolios at Trivariate we have observed that many investors are far more rigorous about their forecasted P&L models than they are about position sizing.  There are

Click here to watch the video Every day the business newswires are filled with sell-side stock analyst ratings, rating changes, and price target changes.  As we write this report, an analyst just posted a $1.00 price target on Carvana (CVNA) –a year ago, a different prominent analyst published a $400 target on the same stock. 

It is hard not to analyze the macro or micro landscape today and see data that appear to be still heavily impacted by COVID. While a lot of people act like and say out loud “COVID is over” – it is obviously not. Both from a public health perspective (100,000 new cases, 5000 new hospitalizations,

Every day the business newswires are filled with sell-side stock analyst ratings, rating changes, and price target changes.  As we write this report, an analyst just posted a $1.00 price target on Carvana (CVNA) –a year ago, a different prominent analyst published a $400 target on the same stock.  While that is an extreme example,

Attached is a monthly document that highlights important points for bottom-up stock pickers. It includes : Changes to macro variables that alter our gross exposure recommendations Risks Changes to profit margin and earnings expectations and multiples KPIs – like inventory levels Sector recommendations and important data Stock ideas Highlights include: Macro and gross exposures: Our

Nearly a decade ago when we were at Morgan Stanley, we coined the phrase “bad is good and good is good” to articulate how no economic news could make equity markets go lower at that time. Bad economic news meant there would still be accommodation from the policy makers, and good news meant things were

This past summer we wrote multiple times about the inverted yield curve. There have only been five times in the last half century where the 10-year yield was below the 5-year yield, and the 5-year yield was simultaneously below the 2-year yield, for a period that lasted more than a year. When this more recent

With private companies (BX) finding value in public companies (EMR) earlier this month and a substantial correction in the market year-to-date, we thought it prudent to evaluate and put context around how much the price-to-forward earnings, FCF yield, and EV-to-forecasted sales ratios have contracted and look for relative opportunities within the equity market. The median

Earlier in the summer of 2022 there was an emerging narrative that the consumer might be in robust enough condition for the Fed to engineer a softish landing. Belief was at its highest following the July market rally and earnings results that were not as dreadful as some felt were possible after the Q2 market