Research

To read Trivariate’s research note on Q1 2023 click here.

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment

To quote the New Yorker Magazine, the “Talk of the Town” this week was the surprising resiliency and strength of the US equity market in the face of what seems like obviously deteriorating risk-reward. The consensus view from our recent conversations is that the S&P500 is likely range bound and at the upper end of

Q4 of 2022 was the first time in over 30 years where the S&P500 was up more than 5% in a quarter and the consumer discretionary sector was down more than 10% during that same quarter.  That has powerfully reversed year-to-date, and while huge moves in AMZN and TSLA are partially responsible,  many of the

Today’s video highlights some incongruities we have observed over the last month…

Most of the news and macro commentary in the last week has been about the Fed. We have been writing since the Fall of 2021 that the perception about interest rates is statistically significantly associated with the price-to-forward earnings for the S&P500, and the relationship is even more pronounced for growth stocks. Our work shows

The range of opinions about what could happen to the US equity market expressed by investors in our recent conversations have been as wide as any time we can remember. Some investors think the Fed has been exceedingly hawkish. Some think the Fed was too late to begin raising rates but now they think accommodation

At Trivariate we regularly study corporate capital uses and evaluate management teams’ decision-making. We showed previously that buybacks have not been efficacious at predicting subsequent stock performance.  Companies doing large share repurchases have not meaningfully outperformed companies that dilute their share count on a relative-to-industry and volatility-adjusted basis. Buybacks are much more effective when companies

We wrote a note last week articulating a framework for shorting stocks.   Accruals and price momentum matter. Let us know if you want short ideas.