Research

We have been arguing that a combination of rising rates, higher valuation, more speculation, and optimistic 2024 earnings estimates mean that the risk-reward for the S&P500 market looks worse today than it did a few months ago.  Moreover, investors are constantly asking for short ideas, flummoxed that companies with downward earnings revisions do not subsequently

In last week’s Level Set we wrote that changes over the last week to earnings expectations, the perception about interest rates, valuation, and speculation all made us more negative about the US equity market than we were three months ago. We met with dozens of investors this past week and asked in each meeting about

Making short-term calls on the market is a fool’s game. Anyone who does it regularly will spend meaningful time in all four quadrants of the 2×2 grid (bullish and right, bullish and wrong, bearish and right, bearish and wrong). However, right or wrong, all investors should incorporate and evaluate data as it changes, to avoid

In many ways the semiconductor industry is a microcosm for the broader market. The stocks have rallied meaningfully despite deteriorating fundamentals because they had underperformed so dramatically last year.  History would suggest estimates could be 10-20% too high for many stocks, as there really is not a lot of ample precedent for a “soft-landing” in

With a backdrop of an “eroding but not imploding economy”, we contend there are two ways to outperform. One, we recommend owning cheap cyclicals with low expectations where there can be substantial balance sheet repair even in a slowing economy. Two, we like stocks that can grow through this declining part of the economic cycle,

Several investors in our meetings last week seemed surprised that the market did not sell off harder after the jobs report nine days ago. Our initial thought was that the clearly strong report would cause a big market pullback and be interpreted as hawkish. But earlier last week, the relatively muted response (the S&P500 was

Click here to read the corresponding research note

Click here to read the corresponding research note

Over the last two decades, an average of 20 companies initiate a dividend each year, though fewer have initiated dividends over the last decade.  Following annual meetings and board authorizations early in the calendar year, far more dividend initiations occur in February than any other month during the calendar year.  Hence, we thought analyzing dividend

There were two consensus views heading into this calendar year. One – the market would go down in the first half of the year and up in the second half of the year. Two – that you can’t own stocks that lose money / burn cash. Both notions have been proven completely wrong year-to-date. Given