Research

Investors who have been too bearish are struggling with the market valuation and asking what they need to believe to get bullish now after such a big rally. There are a number of potential explanations for the market rally. The first reason is the lack of a bear case to earnings. While it is obviously

To read Trivariate’s recent research note on the key components to US corporate earnings click here.

Following our 2H 2023 outlook note published earlier this week, we received numerous questions about corporate earnings.  Our judgment is that the current valuation of the stock market is hard to justify vs. any longer-term perspective or vs. bond yields.  Positioning, sentiment, and “animal spirits” can only last for so long. For the market to continue

Today we are publishing our 2H 2023 US Equity Outlook and hosting a webcast at 11am EDT to discuss our work. Click here to register for the webcast. We will also have a replay available tomorrow morning. In the note we focus on earnings and margins, valuation, risks, capital use, available alpha, some frameworks for

To read Trivariate’s recent research note on what happened in Q2 click here.

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment

One discussion topic that continues to come up in our client meetings is the lack of market breadth this year.  We have several views on this topic.  Firstly, we contend stocks like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Google should be owned for risk management reasons, not for alpha potential.  We first wrote about

To read Trivariate’s research note on gross margins vs. inflation click here.

To read Trivariate’s recent research note on the conclusions on AI click here.

The most significant investment controversies since the Fall of 2021 have been about inflation, the changing perception about interest rates, and the Fed’s policy path.  Inflation impacts corporate profitability, and our research has long shown that changes in gross margins (profitability) are statistically significantly associated with subsequent stock returns. The consumer price index has rolled