Research

We are less optimistic about the US equity market now compared to last week. Our updated view is a combination of sustained tariffs of 10% on many countries for 90 days (maybe) and an escalation to a triple-digit percentage tariff war with China. We’d love to tell you we have some way to estimate the

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Our thoughts for this year were out of consensus on January 6th, 2025 when we published our 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook we said (excerpted below): “New policies not bullish?: We think investors have too benign an interpretation of potential new policies and their impact on US earnings….we have not seen stocks sell off on the specter

Many investors continue to question the potential return on capital spending from the AI-exposed players and wonder whether the capital spending and inventory landscape are reasonable for the average stock to deliver margin expansion. There have been huge moves in inventory and capital spending in the last few years, and we think these should be

At the start of each quarter, we provide a detailed summary of the just completed quarter with the goal of helping investors make better investment decisions, in addition to providing insights that will facilitate investor communications, client conversations, and quarterly letters. Furthermore, our quarterly report seeks to identify emerging risk management concerns and give investment

Many investors continue to question the potential return on capital spending from the AI-exposed players and wonder whether the capital spending and inventory landscape are reasonable for the average stock to deliver margin expansion. There have been huge moves in inventory and capital spending in the last few years, and we think these should be

US GDP Is Slowing The spike in the VIX and the market sell-off this past week is not surprising in our view. While many were calling for a tactical bounce in risk-taking, we have learned that making short-term market calls is a fool’s game. Our primary concern for the market is that we see a

We were asked several times this week about the sell-off in the market, when the market could bottom, and what might work in a recovery. As we wrote last week, we really want to get bullish, because nothing is better than being a contrarian bull now that seemingly everyone is cautious again. However, we think

Buybacks in aggregate have been a waste of capital: There is ample evidence that management teams of most companies should be questioning the value of large share buybacks. On average, among mega-/large-cap stocks they were not rewarded, as share reductions over a 12-month period of 0.5% to 2.05% resulted in similar subsequent volatility-adjusted performance compared

Buybacks in aggregate have been a waste of capital: There is ample evidence that management teams of most companies should be questioning the value of large share buybacks. On average, among mega-/large-cap stocks they were not rewarded, as share reductions over a 12-month period of 0.5% to 2.05% resulted in similar subsequent volatility-adjusted performance compared