Research

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on IPOs.

We set out to create a better way to assess the risk of individual growth stocks by creating a “growth beta” and computing a “growth alpha.”  We discovered some important frameworks for growth stock investors and have some advice for constructing growth stock portfolios among the top 3000 equites in today’s research.  Our style framework

The 2-year US government bond has been offering a higher yield than the 10-year bond for 19 months now, and it stands to reason that at some point it will “un-invert.” It has been compelling to buy the shorter duration bonds relative to the 10-year yield for a while. Moreover, it seems risky to us

The last two years we have seen the fewest back-to-back years for initial public offerings of greater than $1 billion since 2008 and 2009.  2021 was a record year driven largely by SPACs, and also correlated to the highest nominal GDP in the US in nearly a half century.  Tighter financial conditions, concerns about an

Detailed in our October 29th Level Set, our current highest conviction investment ideas are: Overweight Energy. Energy has low earnings expectations, compelling valuation, favorable demand / supply dynamics, and is not loved. This is our top investment idea for the next two to three years. We would own E&Ps, integrated oil companies, and oil services.

While there is ample uncertainty about the overall market direction, with a laundry list of concerns, including geopolitical risk, dysfunction in Washington, higher bond yields, and mixed earnings results, we contend there are ample opportunities to generate alpha on both the long & short side. As we wrote in early October, in our ‘What Happened

In searching for stock ideas, we have noticed stocks in several industries have not generated substantial shareholder value when compared to stock market lows of March of 2020. Rate sensitivity, GLP-1s (Ozempic), shrink and other trends have certainly emerged over the last 3.5 years pressuring some stocks and industries disproportionately, but we thought we’d scour

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on the US Consumer.

The State of the US Consumer Recently generalist investors have been asking us about the state of the US consumer. A strong retail sales figure has some investors questioning whether “good news on the economy is bad for stocks” because it alters their expected Fed path. Others are more generally curious about revenue potential for

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on why small caps are not that cheap.