Over the last few weeks, there have been some mixed macro datapoints, driving bond yields lower. While the economy appears to be more likely to erode than recover, it is also possible that short-term cyclical inflation could exacerbate the issue. We analyzed 95 years of data and found that Consumer Staples typically do well during
Every portfolio manager tells their potential investors that they buy quality stocks. Growth portfolio managers sometimes have various marketing names for this group – from disruptors, to compounders — but in the end, they market to their partners that they own quality stocks. Quality is a big piece of the index: Trivariate has a proprietary
Over the last 25 years there have been twenty sell-offs in the growth stock universe of 10% or more. An incrementally hawkish Fed, growing fears of stagflation, a slowdown in the US consumer, a pause in I.T. spend from increasingly cautious CEOs, a disappointing recovery in China, crowded positioning, accelerating 2H of 2024 earnings estimates
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During earnings season, about 1 in 13 Technology stocks trades down 15% or more on results. Last quarter we saw the highest percentage of “blow-ups” in a decade. With so much quantitative money entering the market after earnings, some of these blow-ups become good entry points (or good to immediately cover if an investor was
We remember in 1987, Australian Pat Cash beat Czech star Ivan Lendl in the Wimbledon Gentlemen’s final. A fan in the crowd famously held up a sign that said “Cash is better than a Czech.” Many investors would agree that cash on the balance sheet is better than an “I.O.U.,” and many also focus on
If stagflation were a stock, it would be up off of lows. The consensus has rightfully assigned a very low probability of stagflation appearing over the past couple of years. Nominal GDP has been strong, and inflation has peaked and rolled over. But trends are slowly changing. While a slowing economy and stubborn inflation may
The stock market is having a bad month. The S&P500 is down 5% this month, owing primarily to changes in the perception of interest rates. As we show below, there is a strongly negative and statistically significant relationship between 24-month Fed Fund Futures (the perception about interest rates two years from now) and the price-to-forward
Given the huge run in NVDA and other AI-Semiconductor stocks, many investors have been asking about a potentially imminent rollover. Even though NVDA’s May 22nd earnings announcement is more than a month away, diversifying exposure consistently comes up in our meetings. We thought it was prudent to look for Technology stocks that trade with a relatively
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