Research

Investors who were short PANW complained about the post-earnings recovery in the stock, as did those who were long MDNY and saw the shares subsequently retreat. With this in mind, we decided to study the efficacy of 10-day price momentum at predicting Technology stock returns in today’s research… 20240307_Technology_Strategy-1Download

Click here to read about Trivariate’s key conclusions on successful IPOs.

The Reddit IPO is imminent, and, as such, we updated our key IPO research conclusions.  Free float, majority sellers, and profitability matters for the distribution of outcomes.  If history is accurate, this dictates that Reddit will perform… 202403_Reddit_IPOsDownload

Given the big move in Technology stocks, we analyzed whether there is any information in the sell-side ratings and price targets that are investable. There are biases to their recommendations- they prefer growth stocks and high beta stocks.   It used to make sense to do the opposite of the sell-side, but now… 20240304_Technology_StrategyDownload

During our investor conversations this past week, the subject of small-caps and the dramatic outperformance of the Magnificent 7 once again surfaced. We must admit we have mixed thoughts. On the one hand, we know that semiconductors are cyclical. Sure, the periodicity and amplitude of an AI-induced cycle can be different than previous cycles, but

Earlier this week, we outlined “Ten Investment Views for the Next Ten Years.” These ideas cut across asset classes and geographies and are, of course, all long-term in nature. Each topic could probably be addressed with dozens of charts, arguments, and counter arguments. We did our best to channel Mark Twain – and took the

Click here to read the corresponding research note.

Click here to read the corresponding research note.

Buybacks in aggregate have been a waste of capital:  There is ample evidence that management teams of most companies should be questioning the value of large buybacks. On average, they were not rewarded, yet we have seen 17 announcements this week, including from… 202402_Buybacks_are_Not_Particularly_EffectiveDownload

This note is intentionally written to be brief on each of the ten investment views. Each topic could probably be addressed with dozens of charts, arguments, and counter arguments. We did our best to channel Mark Twain – and took the time to write the short letter. We would be thrilled to discuss any of