Research

There are several reasons management teams might consider an accelerated share repurchase, or ASR.  From a stock they feel is cheap despite a market rally, or underperformance vs. industry peers, to something potentially more self-serving, like meeting certain variable compensation bogeys based on per share metrics.  Whatever the motivation, we have noticed that ASRs often

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Banks.

In the last year it has become apparent that the consensus view of revenue growth for some of the important cyclical businesses in the market has improved. Housing-related securities, semiconductors, and electrification-focused industrials are three such important cyclicals. Higher rates in homebuilders, high inventory in semiconductors, and slowing industrial activity in industrials would have all

While apathy was the predominant sentiment toward banks for much of the year, the recent strong rally has generated more interest in our recent meetings.  If there is no recession next year – which we think is a possibility, further multiple expansion seems likely.   We consider available alpha, macro conditions, fundamentals, shareholder return, HTM-adjusted valuation,

After a SPAC-induced mania of new offerings in 2021, the last two years have seen the lowest number of initial public offerings in over two decades.  Recently, there has been some renewed optimism that new issue deal flow could improve, with the Moelis CEO stating this past week that there will be a “huge backlog”

After a SPAC-induced mania of new offerings in 2021, the last two years have seen the lowest number of initial public offerings in over two decades.  Recently, there has been some renewed optimism that new issue deal flow could improve, with the Moelis CEO stating this past week that there will be a “huge backlog”

The S&P500 peaked at 4797.56 on the first trading day of 2022, and the Nasdaq a week earlier at 15871.26. While the market has rallied strongly this year, many forget we are still 4% below all-time highs on the S&P500 price index, and over 9% on the Nasdaq. The major difference in the macro landscape

Click here to read Trivariate’s recent research note on Residual Volatility.

Some investors have been incorporating “res vol” or residual volatility into their investment disciplines over the last couple of years.  In fact, some “multi-strat” or “pod” portfolio managers have confided in us that “res vol” is a well-used “arrow in the quiver” for many high-turnover, market-neutral strategies.  Years ago, we had studied residual volatility and

The huge market move in November has investors questioning whether there will be a sharp rotation in December or January. Some investors feel encouraged about the broadening of the rally and believe that is a proxy for better things to come. We are not convinced. Our explanation is a simple one. US Treasury Yields fell,