Research

Recently, when we meet with several Equity Capital Markets (ECM) investors, there were several comments about the challenges of pricing initial public offerings (IPOs) correctly.  Most ECM investors have some trading rules about “Broken IPOs,” or IPOs that trade below their initial price.  With that backdrop, we investigated float, valuation, profitability, and subsequent performance for

During recent meetings, several investors questioned the sustainability of the recent market rally. Most did not anticipate market appreciation of this magnitude. There are three reasons the market continues to rally in our judgment. Firstly, financial conditions remain easy. Over the last 35 years, the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (below) has only been easier 8%

Many investors we speak with are having a strong year from a performance perspective. They are generating alpha, beating the S&P500 if they are long-only, or beating it even if they are long-short. Did investors finally manage to crack the code on outperformance and alpha generation? Probably not. More likely, size, style, substance, and momentum

Oil prices have been range bound for nearly two years, with surprisingly little volatility given some clear demand and supply disappointments.  Energy stocks in the interim period have in some ways materially improved.   The percentage of stocks that are in Trivariate’s highest quality substance quartile, we call “High Quality,” is now higher than the percentage of

Two of the best performing stocks year-to-date, NVDA and CMG, have recently announced 10:1 and 50:1 stock splits, respectively, catalyzing us to investigate the performance of stock splits historically.  While this is a well-traversed area of academic and Wall Street research, we wanted to investigate this the “Trivariate Way” to see if there were any

A week ago, an investor mentioned to us that after NVDA’s earnings report on May 22nd, earnings season was essentially over. That turned out to be a huge exaggeration if you were long Software or short Retailers. For Software, the growing concern over the last year about AI disrupting that industry is now reaching a

Last month, we updated our outlook on the U.S. equity market to a more neutral stance – we feel like the next 10% move in the market (up or down) is probably equally balanced. While we recognize the potential for margin expansion to drive equity prices higher, we also acknowledge the increased risk of stagflation,

Two of the best performing stocks year-to-date, NVDA and CMG, have recently announced 10:1 and 50:1 stock splits, respectively, catalyzing us to investigate the performance of stock splits historically.  While this is a well-traversed area of academic and Wall Street research, we wanted to investigate this the “Trivariate Way” to see if there were any

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if

Many of our clients are fundamental stock pickers.  These investors are blitzed daily with innumerable narratives which purport to explain the market’s behavior and project its coming moves.  Be wary.  We show many of these approaches not only possess no predictive value whatsoever, they destroy value. Investors can save a great deal of time if