Research

Heading into 2023, the consensus view was that the stock market would go lower in the first half of the year, and higher in the second half. Our view published on the first Monday of January 2023 was to do the opposite: “…the bull case is a function of the fact that the biggest two

Trivariate’s recent research on AI: Level Set – Changing Our Views: Three New Types of Stocks and Perverse Valuation? (Link) Growth: A.I. Risk Factor, Fed, And FAANGM (Link) Level Set – What “BID” AI Means For Valuation, And Taking Risk (Link)

To read Trivariate’s corresponding research note click here.

We continue to contemplate the possibility that all US equities might end up in one of three buckets based on the potential impact of AI – Beneficiaries, those that are Impregnable to AI, those that get Destroyed. We are using the acronym “BID” to reference these three buckets. Our suspicion is that companies that are

The world is clearly changing – with artificial intelligence, language processing, data ingestion and management, among other trends – rendering certain investment processes mute.  The traditional business models of the optimal ways to do “bottom-up” fundamental stock picking are evolving rapidly.  In today’s note, we put forth some frameworks to help CIOs identify fertile areas

To read Trivariate’s corresponding research note click here.

Given that a Fed pause is now seemingly the consensus view, we thought it would be appropriate to look back in time at previous Fed pauses and evaluate the performance of major asset classes and US equity sectors to look for patterns of behavior and create a Pause Playbook. To be clear, we aren’t certain

Over the last 35 years, the S&P500 was down 2.5% or more in a month in 17% of the months, or roughly 2x per year.  Recently, however, the pace has been higher, with 2022 having seven such months – the most over this period.  Every day, Wall Street “experts” reference or posit different signals to

To read Trivariate’s research note on Industrials: The Case For Caution click here.

We wrote our first AI-focused note a couple of weeks ago and received more incoming questions from that piece than on any other research we have published in a long time. Whereas most of the market’s discussion related to AI has previously been theoretical, Q1 earnings season marked a change to more tangible commentary about