Research

Background: Palantir (Ticker: PLTR) is currently $291 billion in market capitalization with the consensus expectations for $3.89 billion in 2025 revenue. At the end of June 2024, PLTR was $56.4 billion in market capitalization, toward the upper end of the mid-cap. universe range. After going up nearly five-fold, the stock is now the 25th largest

Right now, it feels like no one has a strong conviction—bullish or bearish—about the stock market. Fundamentals might deteriorate from here. Just look at Ross Stores (Ticker: ROST) missing earnings and pulling guidance on Thursday, Deckers Outdoors (Ticker: DECK) down over 20% on Friday on a reduced outlook, and Walmart’s (Ticker: WMT) CFO warning that

We have been writing for several quarters about company-specific risk (CSR) and replicability – two concepts we use to assess how much of a stock’s returns can be explained by macro factors, and how many stocks trade highly correlated to each other over the last year. In addition to using these concepts to guide CIOs

Background: We have been writing for several quarters about company-specific risk (CSR) and replicability – two concepts we use to assess how much of a stock’s returns can be explained by macro factors, and how many stocks trade highly correlated to each other over the last year. In addition to using these concepts to guide

It turns out the best market call this year was President Trump’s proclamation on April 8th to “Go out and buy stocks now.” We have been analyzing and creating quantitative signals for the better part of two decades, and forgive us, we never studied the “buy stocks because the President says so” factor. Our bad.

Here are the three most-viewed charts from our recent research. Let us know if you’d like to connect to discuss the insights – or to hear our latest market views. 1. There Are Now More Junk Semis Than High-Quality Semis In our April research, Is Now The Time To Buy Semiconductors?, we examine whether semis

After several investor meetings and a dinner with risk-minded equity investors this past week, it is our sense that there is ample confusion about what news is coming next, both in terms of corporate news and government policy. In the past, when we have felt this much tension from investors, who are either positioned optimistically

Background: One of the biggest macro investment controversies is the state of the US consumer. Jobs data remain relatively strong, but confidence is low. The stocks exposed to the Consumer have materially lagged. Hence, we investigate the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in today’s research. Stock ideas: We offer long / short Consumer Staples

Background: One of the biggest macro investment controversies is the state of the US consumer. Jobs data remain relatively strong, but confidence is low. The stocks exposed to the Consumer have materially lagged. Hence, we investigate the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in today’s research. We continue to recommend investors’ Underweight Consumer Discretionary: Consumer

We did several meetings this past week, and as is always the case, sentiment lags price momentum by two weeks. Three weeks ago, when we spent two days doing meetings in Canada, sentiment was decidedly negative. The market had declined well more than 10% year-to-date, and emotions were running high. This past week we spent